This week’s tracking report returns to form with an early outlook for what’s likely to be one of 2022’s biggest films.
In addition, current forecast ranges for other upcoming releases are available in the chart below.
Jurassic World Dominion
Universal Pictures
June 10, 2022
PROS:
- The Jurassic franchise has proven its generational appeal following two blockbuster sequels in 2015 and 2018 that soared to new box office heights, including a one-time domestic opening weekend record with the former Jurassic World seven years ago. Steven Spielberg’s original Jurassic Park also set the same record 29 years ago.
- Pre-sales for Dominion have been strong out of the gate, backing up social media sentiment scores that are tracking ahead of where Fallen Kingdom stood at the same point ahead of its release.
- The return of the original 1993 cast (Sam Neill, Jeff Goldblum, and Laura Dern) alongside Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard is playing a major role in moviegoer anticipation, as is the marketing push that this is the final chapter of the franchise. Film fans are also enthusiastic about director Colin Trevorrow’s return to the franchise.
- Premium screen footprints will be far and wide, and even with a fairly packed mid-summer slate ahead, the film should coexist alongside other counter-programmers quite well. Dominion‘s four-quadrant appeal promises the kind of theatrical experience for a variety of ages and families that should pair well with the pent-up demand for a normal summer movie season for the first time in three years.
CONS:
- The franchise has (so far) peaked with the first entries of each “trilogy”. 1997’s The Lost World (down 36 percent from the 1993 original) and 2001’s Jurassic Park 3 (down 21 percent from Lost World) each saw diminishing box office returns in North America. Fallen Kingdom, while still a major blockbuster, similarly saw a 36 percent dip in total grosses from Jurassic World.
- The film opens just two weeks after Top Gun: Maverick, which should still be going strong through summer based on early reviews and Tom Cruise’s history with leggy films. Dominion is ultimately at the center of what will be the most crowded release schedule of the pandemic era so far, so there is some volatility to expectations.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 5/12/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 5/20/2022 | Downton Abbey: A New Era | $17,000,000 – $21,000,000 | +3% | $48,000,000 – $65,000,000 | +3% | 3,400 | Focus Features |
| 5/20/2022 | Men | 1,600 | A24 | ||||
| 5/27/2022 | Bob’s Burgers | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $16,000,000 – $32,000,000 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||
| 5/27/2022 | Top Gun: Maverick | $95,000,000 – $125,000,000 | +10% | $275,000,000 – $395,000,000 | +10% | Paramount Pictures | |
| 6/3/2022 | Crimes of the Future | NEON | |||||
| 6/10/2022 | Jurassic World Dominion | $165,000,000 – $205,000,000 | $460,000,000 – $575,000,000 | Universal Pictures |
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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