This week’s long range tracking welcomes the addition of Creed III as the film is slated to kick off an anticipated March slate of wide theatrical releases.
Creed III
MGM
March 3, 2023
PROS:
- Preliminary social metrics are healthy with positive sentiment marshalling around the return of Michael B. Jordan and Tessa Thompson alongside franchise newcomer Jonathan Majors, who will be fresh off the most prolific role of his young career so far in February’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.
- Opening two weeks after the aforementioned Marvel Studios film, and two weeks before Shazam! Fury of the Gods, gives this sequel some padding to draw its core adult male audience.
- The prior entries, Creed and Creed II, combined to generate $225.5 million domestically with near-equal runs between them ($109.8 million and $115.7 million, respectively) thanks to strong critical and commercial reception that built upon the legacy of the Rocky franchise.
CONS:
- The absence of Sylvester Stallone’s Rocky Balboa character will likely be felt here to some extent, particularly among the older generations who turned out for the previous two films when he was featured in a major role each time.
- Early tracking bears that expectation out with trailer imprints and social data not quite reaching the level of the most recent sequel at the same point before release, underscoring some expectation for natural diminishing returns.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/3/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Expected Location Count | Distributor |
| 2/10/2023 | Magic Mike’s Last Dance | $16,000,000+ | $38,000,000+ | TBD | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||
| 2/10/2023 | Titanic (25 Year Anniversary) | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $18,000,000 – $34,000,000 | 1,800 | Paramount Pictures | ||
| 2/15/2023 | Marlowe | $1,000,000 – $3,000,000 | $2,500,000 – $8,000,000 | Open Road Films | |||
| 2/17/2023 | Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | $98,000,000 – $128,000,000 | $249,000,000 – $339,000,000 | Disney / Marvel Studios | |||
| 2/17/2023 | Of An Age (Limited) | Focus Features | |||||
| 2/21/2023 | Untitled Crunchyroll Film | Crunchyroll / Sony | |||||
| 2/24/2023 | Cocaine Bear | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $18,000,000 – $36,000,000 | Universal Pictures | |||
| 2/24/2023 | Jesus Revolution | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $26,000,000 – $55,000,000 | Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company | |||
| 2/24/2023 | My Happy Ending | Roadside Attractions | |||||
| 2/24/2023 | Mummies (Limited) | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 3/3/2023 | Creed III | $25,000,000 – $34,000,000 | $71,000,000 – $98,000,000 | MGM | |||
| 3/3/2023 | Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village | Crunchyroll / Sony |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.
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