September gives way to October as three new releases and one wide expansion look to inject some energy into the mid-autumn box office market.
THE CREATOR
20th Century Studios
September 29, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $15M-$22M
WEEKEND PROS:
- The Creator not only has claim over a significant premium screen landscape, Imax included, but also boasts a positive 79 percent Rotten Tomatoes score from 94 critics as of Wednesday, as well as an enthusiastic social media imprint. Pre-sales currently outstrip mid-week trends of similar genre fare such as 65 and The Northman.
- Dumb Money also holds healthy critics marks (85 percent approval from 164 reviews) and a preliminary 86 percent audience score from over 100 voters during its first two weeks in platform and limited release. Its primary targeted demographic is for male audiences, though models are conservative, with 2015’s Steve Jobs remaining a core comparison title.
- With the absence of significant family content in the market since late summer, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie could benefit from pent-up demand and its own established IP. Pre-sales are trending well ahead of the pace of last year’s Lyle, Lyle Crocodile and showing signs of topping 2021’s The Addams Family 2.
- Saw X will lean on its core franchise audience to return as the series goes back to its roots with the return of stars Tobin Bell and Shawnee Smith. A return to releasing during the start of “spooky season” this October is also a plus.
PAW PATROL: THE MIGHTY MOVIE
Paramount Pictures
September 29, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $15M-$23M
WEEKEND CONS:
- The Creator‘s biggest hurdle to overcome will be in whether the film is able to amass some mainstream appeal. As an original sci-fi film, it’s currently banking on the enthusiasm of genre fans to build momentum at the box office.
- Dumb Money‘s staggered rollout has thus far pointed towards the existence of a cap on how much appeal its subject holds for audiences outside those already interested in its meme stock subject matter. The film’s key male audience is tracking more strongly with The Creator this weekend.
- PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie will forego Thursday previews for an old school Friday opening. Strong pre-sales could be slightly misleading, as the brand is quite popular and easily accessible among parents and little kids.
- The Saw franchise has matured beyond the point of attracting many newcomers, and a glut of other horror titles in the market right now could further limit this chapter’s box office ceiling. With a modest premium screen footprint relative to The Nun II and Insidious: The Red Door, average ticket prices for Saw X should be lower than those films.
SAW X
Lionsgate
September 29, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $10M-$15M
DUMB MONEY
Sony Pictures
September 29, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $5M-$8M
Current projection ranges call for a 41% increase from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $56.8 million in 2022 and a 4% decrease from 2019’s $83.4 million frame.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 1 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie | Paramount Pictures | $21,700,000 | $21,700,000 | ~3,500 | NEW |
| The Creator | 20th Century Studios | $19,800,000 | $19,800,000 | ~3,600 | NEW |
| Saw X | Lionsgate | $13,500,000 | $13,500,000 | ~3,100 | NEW |
| Dumb Money | Sony & Columbia Pictures | $6,500,000 | $10,300,000 | ~2,750 | +168% |
| The Nun II | Warner Bros. Pictures | $4,800,000 | $77,100,000 | ~2,900 | -44% |
| Expend4bles | Lionsgate | $3,600,000 | $14,300,000 | ~3,518 | -55% |
| A Haunting in Venice | 20th Century Studios | $3,500,000 | $31,400,000 | ~2,800 | -44% |
| The Equalizer 3 | Sony & Columbia Pictures | $3,000,000 | $86,300,000 | ~2,300 | -37% |
| Barbie | Warner Bros. Pictures | $2,100,000 | $633,900,000 | ~1,500 | -34% |
| My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 | Focus Features | $1,800,000 | $27,000,000 | ~1,600 | -41% |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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