The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | September 13 – 15, 2024
Week 37 | September 13 – 15, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 37, 2024: $70M — $110M
1. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Warner Bros. | Week 2
Weekend Range: $40M – $60M
Showtime Marketshare: 29%
Pros
- The ghost with the most came roaring back this weekend with a $111M 3-day domestic take after Monday actuals knocked it up a mil. That was far above early estimates which had it pegged around a $65M opening, and director Tim Burton’s best debut since Alice in Wonderland in 2010. Reactions are leaning positive with 77% “Certified Fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes, 82% audience score, and “B+” CinemaScore, which should keep the movie performing steadily just in time for one last hurrah around the end of October Halloween festivities. No matter how you shake it, we’re looking at a 50%+ drop this weekend (and perhaps steeper), but the film will most likely retain the top spot domestically, even if it suffers a deadly drop of over 70%.
Cons
- Although reactions are positive-ish, there’s some reluctance to fully embrace Beetlejuice Beetlejuice across the board, which suggests audiences are not as wholly satisfied as they have been for previous high-performing sequels this year like Inside Out 2, Deadpool & Wolverine, or Dune: Part Two which all earned CinemaScore “A” grades. Burton’s 36-years-later sequel may be hurting somewhat due to the long gestation process it went through, thus making fan expectations sky-high. It is also Burton’s best-reviewed film since Frankenweenie dropped over a decade ago in 2012, so many might have been grading it on a curve. Although it’s earned $126.2M domestically so far, foreign numbers are softer at only $36M, so taking this movie to where it needs to go globally is going to be an uphill climb.
2. Speak No Evil
Universal Pictures/Blumhouse | NEW
Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Showtime Marketshare: 11%
Pros
- Speak No Evil is the latest small-scale horror entry from Blumhouse and a remake of the 2022 Danish film of the same name. Despite all the hubbub about Disney, this film’s distributor, Universal, has managed to perform almost as well as its rival in the market with a 19.08% share of the 2024 movie market, making them the #2 studio of the year compared to the mouse house’s 21.69%. In other words, they know how to market a movie like this. Although Night Swim, their previous Blumhouse release in 2024, doggie paddled to $32.4M while their homegrown Universal horror Abigail bled out with $25.8M, neither of those releases had the star power (James McAvoy, Mackenzie Davis, Scoot McNairy) of Speak No Evil. Another plus for Universal’s marketing is early reviews, which give the film an 88% on Rotten Tomatoes so far, with Cary Darling of The Houston Chronicle saying, “It’s a B-movie with an A-level cast, and there’s nothing wrong with that.” While many reviewers say it is lesser than the original, they also say it’s its effective animal and praising McAvoy’s disturbing turn.
Cons
- Blumhouse’s streak of mediocre performers this year hit a low with their Labor Day release Afraid, their lowest-performing wide-release debut since Jem and the Holograms in 2015. Also, star James McAvoy -who opened two of Blumhouse’s biggest movies ever with Split ($138.1M) and Glass ($111M)- hasn’t had a major post-pandemic release after 2019’s IT: Chapter Two became one of his biggest successes at $211.5M. His biggest 2020s movie was this past January’s The Book of Clarence with a rock bottom $6.1M domestic cume. The subject matter of Speak No Evil, where a weekend holiday escalates into a nightmare for a young family, may also prove too intense for general audiences as its R-rating for strong violence suggests… though that may also be the draw.
3. The Killer’s Game
Lionsgate | NEW
Weekend Range: $4M – $8M
Showtime Marketshare: 8%
Pros
- Here’s hoping that Lionsgate might surprise with this under-the-radar action programmer like the first John Wick did a decade ago, although that movie benefited from months of stealth buzz and screenings, which this one did not have (no reviews yet). Besides Dave Bautista as the movie’s hitman lead, the cast of The Killer’s Game is stacked with familiar faces to the action crowd, including Sofia Boutella, Terry Crews, Scott Adkins, and Ben Kingsley. There’s even Bautista’s fellow Guardian of the Galaxy, Pom Klementieff, as the central antagonist. Like David Leitch (Bullet Train), Chad Stahelski (John Wick 1-4), or Sam Hargrave (Extraction 1 & 2), The Killer’s Game‘s J. J. Perry is part of the new wave of stuntmen/action choreographers developing thriving careers as directors. He made his directorial debut on 2022’s big-budget Netflix feature Day Shift and has another Dave Bautista actioner, Afterburn, in post-production. This one might just help take him to the next level while also showcasing Bautista—now in his mid-50s—as a capable leading man.
Cons
- Typically an action powerhouse with series like John Wick, The Hitman’s Bodyguard, or The Expendables, Lionsgate is currently going through a rebuilding year with box office disappointments like The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare ($20.5M), Borderlands ($15.4M), and The Crow ($9.2M). Although Bautista is a highly talented actor and screen presence in mega-blockbusters like the Marvel movies, the two Dune films, or James Bond entry Spectre, he has yet to pop in his few theatrical leads ala 2019’s Stuber ($22.3M domestic) or M. Night Shyamalan’s Knock at the Cabin ($35.3M), we expect this film to have more modest expectations at the box office.
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