This week’s report takes a first glance at February with two releases that hope to gain traction coming off a very slow first month of 2024.
Argylle
Universal Pictures & Apple Original Films
February 2, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $20M-$30M
Domestic Total Range: $65M-$105M
PROS:
- Matthew Vaughn has a solid track record with ensemble-driven, stylized action films, ranging from Kick-Ass to the first two Kingsman films and X-Men: First Class.
- With an off weekend for football fans before the Super Bowl on February 11, competition for the film’s target male audience is minimal. That’s a compounded advantage with light January and February slates surrounding the release.
CONS:
- Marketing has yet to ignite the kind of social buzz that preceded Vaughn’s Kingsman films, which may put more pressure on reviews and final trailer rotations in the weeks ahead.
The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1 – 3
Fathom Events
February 2, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $7M-$11M
Domestic Total Range: $11M-$18M
PROS:
- The Chosen has proven to be a strong theatrical draw with episode premieres drawing faith-based audiences of the acclaimed series. The Season 3 premiere double feature earned $8.77 million on opening weekend in late 2021.
- Angel Studios, likewise, continues to cement its box office drawing power and crowd-funding strategies among Christian communities with recent counter-programming successes such as His Only Son, After Death, The Shift and last summer’s blockbuster, Sound of Freedom. Their direct association with the franchise prior to this point is a notable strength for audience awareness.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 1/4/24)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | 4-Day (FSSM) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 1/12/2024 | The Beekeeper | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $9,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $41,000,000 | MGM | ||
| 1/12/2024 | The Book of Clarence | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $5,750,000 – $11,500,000 | $10,000,000 – $23,000,000 | Sony Pictures | ||
| 1/12/2024 | Mean Girls | $20,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $23,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $50,000,000 – $92,000,000 | Paramount Pictures | ||
| 1/12/2024 | Soul | Disney / Pixar | |||||
| 1/19/2024 | I.S.S. | $2,000,000 – $7,000,000 | $5,000,000 – $22,000,000 | Bleecker Street | |||
| 1/19/2024 | Origin | NEON | |||||
| 1/26/2024 | Miller’s Girl | Lionsgate | |||||
| 1/26/2024 | Underdoggs | United Artists | |||||
| 1/26/2024 | The Concierge | Sony / Crunchyroll | |||||
| 1/26/2024 | Housekeeping for Beginners (Limited) | Focus Features | |||||
| 2/1/2024 | The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1 – 3 | $7,000,000 – $11,000,000 | $11,000,000 – $18,000,000 | Fathom Events | |||
| 2/2/2024 | Argylle | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $65,000,000 – $105,000,000 | Universal Pictures / Apple Original Films | |||
| 2/2/2024 | Scrambled | Lionsgate |
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