This week’s report takes a first glance into the new year, with Universal and Blumhouse hoping to kick 2024 off on a positive note with their latest original horror flick.
Night Swim
Universal Pictures
January 5, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $17M-$25M
Domestic Total Range: $38M-$65M
PROS:
- Universal and Blumhouse have an undeniably strong track record together, most recently with Five Nights at Freddy’s setting the latter studio’s opening weekend record. Night Swim, not accidentally, was a featured trailer in front of Freddy’s, bolstering its awareness profile among target audiences.
- Strong appeal to young women and date night crowds is expected thanks to a PG-13 rating and Blumhouse’s popularity among those demographics.
- Coming off a holiday season packed with award contenders and several all-audience films, horror releases in early January have become a reliable and often successful tradition. Most recently, Universal and Blumhouse’s own M3GAN scored a $30.4 million domestic opening to kickstart 2023.
CONS:
- Night Swim hasn’t popped across social media marketing in anywhere near the fashion as did M3GAN one year ago.
- …The Mean Girls revival film has, however, generated healthy early traction on key social channels such as TikTok and Instagram. Given its own positive early tracking among young women—and its January 12 release date, the weekend after Night Swim‘s debut—the horror film could become less of a priority for the two films’ shared audience depending on buzz and reception over the next four weeks.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023-2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 12/7/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | 4-Day (FSSM) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 12/15/2023 | American Fiction (Limited) | MGM / MRC | |||||
| 12/15/2023 | Concrete Utopia (Wide Expansion; NY+LA on Dec. 8) | Lotte Entertainment | |||||
| 12/15/2023 | Wonka | $26,000,000 – $36,000,000 | -7% | $142,000,000 – $252,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||
| 12/22/2023 | All of Us Strangers (Limited) | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | |||||
| 12/22/2023 | American Fiction (Expansion) | MGM / MRC | |||||
| 12/22/2023 | Anyone But You | $1,000,000 – $3,000,000 | $2,000,000 – $10,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | |||
| 12/22/2023 | Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | $32,000,000 – $42,000,000 | $42,000,000- $56,000,000 | $105,000,000 – $168,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||
| 12/22/2023 | The Iron Claw | $2,000,000 – $5,000,000 | $10,000,000 – $26,000,000 | A24 | |||
| 12/22/2023 | Migration | $15,000,000 – $30,000,000 | -9% | $21,000,000- $42,000,000 | $112,000,000- $250,000,000 | Universal Pictures / Illumination | |
| 12/22/2023 | Salaar: Part 1 Ceasefire | Prathyangira Cinemas | |||||
| 12/25/2023 | The Boys in the Boat | $1,500,000 – $4,000,000 | $8,000,000 – $16,000,000 | MGM | |||
| 12/25/2023 | The Color Purple | $13,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $59,000,000 – $110,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 12/25/2023 | Ferrari | $3,000,000 – $7,000,000 | $12,000,000 – $35,000,000 | NEON | |||
| 1/5/2024 | Night Swim | $17,000,000 – $25,000,000 | $38,000,000 – $65,000,000 | Universal Pictures / Blumhouse | |||
| 1/5/2024 | The Painter | Republic Pictures |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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