As our look ahead at April’s box office continues, two more films come into view with this week’s report.
Civil War
A24
April 12, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $12M-$18M
Domestic Total Range: $34M-$65M
PROS:
- Filmmaker Alex Garland has built a following with genre-bending films such as Ex Machina and Annihilation, as well as “Devs” on Hulu. Combined with an IMAX release and strong cast, his latest could stand out in amid a relatively soft April slate.
- Likewise, A24’s brand is among the gold standards outside the major studio system, with many fans turning out for the studio’s original projects regardless of writer, director, or cast.
CONS:
- Dystopian films can be challenging to sell to mainstream audiences, particularly in the post-pandemic era when escapism has been a dominant theme even among the more successful mid-range box office performers.
The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare
Lionsgate
April 19, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $6M-$10M
Domestic Total Range: $12M-$34M
PROS:
- Guy Ritchie also boasts a core fan following that overlaps nicely with the film’s target audience. An appealing ensemble cast will be beneficial, too.
CONS:
- Competition for male audiences will be challenging up against Civil War and the potential holdover strength of Monkey Man and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/14/24)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Distributor |
| 3/22/2024 | Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire | $31,000,000 – $43,000,000 | $85,000,000 – $126,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures |
| 3/22/2024 | Luca | Disney / Pixar | ||
| 3/29/2024 | Asphalt City | Vertical & Roadside Attractions | ||
| 3/29/2024 | Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire | $43,000,000 – $56,000,000 | $95,000,000 – $157,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| 3/29/2024 | In the Land of Saints and Sinners | Samuel Goldwyn Films | ||
| 4/5/2024 | The First Omen | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $20,000,000 – $34,400,000 | 20th Century Studios |
| 4/5/2024 | Monkey Man | $16,000,000 – $25,000,000 | $45,000,000 – $75,000,000 | Universal Pictures |
| 4/10/2024 | SUGA│Agust D TOUR “D-DAY” the MOVIE | BTS SUGA | ||
| 4/12/2024 | Civil War | $12,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $34,000,000 – $65,000,000 | A24 |
| 4/12/2024 | Don’t Tell Mom the Babysitter’s Dead (2024) | Iconic Events Releasing | ||
| 4/19/2024 | The Ministry of Ungentlemenly Warfare | $6,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $12,000,000 – $34,000,000 | Lionsgate |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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