Long Range Box Office Forecast: Firestarter‘s Early Outlook, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Tracking Climbs

This week’s report takes an early look at Universal and Blumhouse’s remake of Firestarter, currently slated for a hybrid release on Friday, May 13.

In addition to that and other current forecasts in the chart below, tracking over the past week has improved slightly for Marvel Studios’ highly anticipated Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. Sales cycles remain largely incomparable to other pandemic releases due to the film’s near-month-long ticket availability, but social trends continue to impress and — for now — all combined models point to a slightly higher floor than data points previously indicated.

Firestarter
Universal Pictures & Blumhouse

PROS:

• The original 1984 film is a cult classic which helped propel Drew Barrymore into star status. Fans of that film, Stephen King’s novel (whose own brand has seen a resurgence on the big screen), and Blumhouse could turn out for this reimagining.

• Horror has been one of the more consistent draws during the pandemic recovery era, and this will be the first (technically) of that genre to hit cinemas this summer.

• Zac Efron’s leading presence could further boost appeal to female audiences, typically a driver of many horror pictures.

CONS:

• Opening one week after the Doctor Strange sequel will severely cut into general audience potential as the Marvel blockbuster-to-be is expected to still be going strong in its second weekend. Additionally, Strange‘s own venture into the horror realm may distract even some horror die-hards from this one.

• Early social reactions to trailers and marketing materials are modest, with current sentiments and modelling below The Invisible Man ahead of its 2020 launch and more comparable to the same year’s Fantasy Island.

• Horror reboots have had a mixed history at the box office, and the availability of this film at home for free to Peacock subscribers on the same day won’t do any favors to theatrical potential, especially if reception proves less than positive.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 4/14/22)

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

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