This week’s update brings another major franchise release set to hit theaters in March as the box office outlook steadies following a rough start to 2024.
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
Sony & Columbia Pictures
March 22, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $35M-$49M
Domestic Total Range: $96M-$144M
PROS:
- Goodwill from the well-received Ghostbusters: Afterlife, which earned a 94 percent Rotten Tomatoes audience score on its way to $129.4 million domestically, should benefit this direct sequel as another fan- and family-friendly cinematic attraction going into spring with minimal direct competition in April and early May.
- Alongside the returning Paul Rudd, Mckenna Grace, Finn Wolfhard, and Carrie Coon, marketing’s promise of reuniting franchise icons Bill Murray, Dan Aykroyd, Ernie Hudson, and Annie Potts in the original films’ New York-centric setting should again aid appeal to the series’ older, male-driven audience.
- Three weeks removed from Dune: Part Two‘s anticipated release, Frozen Empire will have a wide spread of PLF screen availability to help boost ticket sales upon opening.
CONS:
- The primary concerns regarding competition will come from the staying power of Kung Fu Panda 4, in its third weekend when Empire opens; that film will play more strongly to parents with kids on the younger side of the spectrum. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire could also detract from some of Ghostbusters’ action fan audience, not to mention its PLF footprint, when it opens one week later.
- While Afterlife was a crowd-pleaser that succeeded despite opening during the early phases of pandemic recovery during late 2021, the franchise seems to have a box office ceiling as a brand that remains well-known but not as culturally dominant or resonant on an event level as other nostalgic IP when it comes to younger generations of moviegoers.
- As multiple franchise films have shown in the past year, some brand names becoming long in the tooth have begun to lose steam at the box office. This sequel will need strong word of mouth and final marketing efforts to recapture the same level of buzz as Afterlife.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/22/24)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 2/29/2024 | The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7 – 8 | $3,000,000 – $7,000,000 | $7,000,000 – $16,000,000 | Angel Studios | ||
| 3/1/2024 | Dune: Part Two | $65,000,000 – $80,000,000 | +9% | $164,000,000 – $213,000,000 | +12% | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| 3/8/2024 | Accidental Texan | Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 3/8/2024 | Cabrini | Angel Studios | ||||
| 3/8/2024 | Imaginary | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | -9% | $37,000,000 – $63,000,000 | -9% | Lionsgate |
| 3/8/2024 | Kung Fu Panda 4 | $30,000,000 – $39,000,000 | $103,000,000 – $142,000,000 | Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation | ||
| 3/15/2024 | 1992 | $5,000,000 – $9,000,000 | $12,000,000 – $27,000,000 | Lionsgate | ||
| 3/15/2024 | Arthur The King | $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 | $36,000,000 – $68,000,000 | Lionsgate | ||
| 3/22/2024 | One Life | Bleecker Street | ||||
| 3/22/2024 | The American Society of Magical Negroes | Focus Features | ||||
| 3/22/2024 | Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire | $35,000,000 – $49,000,000 | $96,000,000 – $144,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | ||
| 3/22/2024 | Luca | Disney / Pixar | ||||
| 3/29/2024 | Asphalt City | Vertical & Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 3/29/2024 | Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||||
| 3/29/2024 | In the Land of Saints and Sinners | Samuel Goldwyn Films |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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