Update: Lionsgate has removed White Bird: A Wonder Story from its release schedule. Upon confirmation of this, the film is also removed from the forecast below.
Original Report: Fall box office will continue to warm up as mid-October approaches, and this week’s tracking report takes a first glance at the two films courting audiences on the month’s second full frame.
Meanwhile, upcoming releases are trending in opposite directions as buzz for the weekend of September 23 is clearly heading in one direction over the other.
PROS:
- Halloween Ends again sees the return (and final appearance) of Jamie Lee Curtis as the original “final girl” in what the filmmakers and studio are marketing as the end of her story and this particular modern trilogy. With that finale factor in mind, a drought of franchise horror films this year, and another timely release close to the titular holiday, many fans are expected to turn out for the latest Michael Myers chapter.
- Closer on the calendar, Don’t Worry Darling has maintained its social buzz in recent weeks and is now translating that controversy-driven, real-world narrative into healthy pre-sales.
CONS:
- As many franchise sequels have before, Halloween Ends will likely pay for the sins of its predecessor’s mixed reception. Halloween Kills saw a significant drop-off in critical reception, and a fairly noticeable one from some audiences as well. Like that 2021 follow-up, Ends will again be going day-and-date in theaters and streaming for free to Peacock subscribers.
- While expectations for Don’t Worry Darling are climbing for opening weekend, sour reviews and an increased likelihood of front-loaded pre-sales driven by Harry Styles fans and the media narrative of the film’s production are cutting into staying power expectancy.
- Darling‘s counterpart “opener” next weekend, the re-release of Avatar, is showing soft momentum in the universe of tracking and early pre-sales so far. While the premium screen presence in IMAX and others, plus a possible back-loaded nature to Cameron’s 2009 epic may still play out in the nextx week, there’s also some concern that it’s predominate availability in 3D will dampen casual moviegoers’ desire to return to theaters for that specific format.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/15/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 9/23/2022 | Avatar (2022 Re-Release) | $6,000,000 – $12,000,000 | -40% | $12,000,000 – $25,000,000 | -44% | Disney / 20th Century Studios |
| 9/23/2022 | Don’t Worry Darling | $18,000,000 – $27,000,000 | +48% | $45,000,000 – $67,500,000 | +35% | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| 9/27/2022 | Mobile Suit Gundam Cucuruz Doan’s Island | Crunchyroll / Sony | ||||
| 9/30/2022 | Bros | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $34,000,000 – $59,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 9/30/2022 | Smile | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $35,000,000 – $65,000,000 | Paramount Pictures | ||
| 10/7/2022 | Amsterdam | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $35,000,000 – $60,000,000 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | ||
| 10/7/2022 | Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile | $18,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $66,000,000 – $95,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | ||
| 10/14/2022 | Halloween Ends | $35,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $65,000,000 – $84,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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