As summer commences in full fashion, so continues the addition of another major seasonal tentpole with an early outlook for Universal and Illumination Animation’s latest installment of the Despicable Me franchise.
Meanwhile, current ranges for Jurassic World Dominion, Lightyear, The Black Phone, and Elvis are found in the chart below as usual.
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Universal Pictures & Illumination
July 1, 2022
PROS:
- The Despicable Me franchise remains a strong brand among families after four hugely successful films dating back to 2010. Marketing for this follow-up began before the pandemic, so awareness for it is quite high after multiple delays over the past two years.
- The previous Minions spin-off was a blockbuster in its own right, generating a $115.7 million bow and $336 million domestic total back in the summer of 2015.
- Steve Carell’s return as the voice of Gru should bolster the attempt to bring back fans of the prime Despicable series. His absence was somewhat felt in the Minions spin-off, which was more front-loaded than is typical of the series and many animated films.
- Opening over Fourth of July weekend as the only wide new release that frame should help it stand out with families. Sunday will be inflated due to Monday’s holiday observance.
- In general, a pent-up demand for comedic family animation with a strong IP behind it should play well in the rebounding market after very few offerings in theaters during the early days of pandemic recovery last year and earlier in 2022.
CONS:
- Franchises entering their fifth installments experience diminished returns more often than not. Despicable Me 3 already showcased that emerging trend with a $264.6 million domestic finish in 2017, down more than 21 percent from Minions in 2015 ($336.1 million) and 28 percent from Despicable Me 2 in 2013 ($368.1 million).
- Opening two weeks after Pixar’s Lightyear will create some natural audience crossover for families. This will be the first major test of two tentpole animated IPs trying to coexist during the long summer season since pre-pandemic times when such an occurrence was quite achievable in June and July.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/2/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | 3-Day (FSS) Pinpoint Opening Forecast | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Domestic Total Pinpoint Forecast | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 6/10/2022 | Jurassic World Dominion | $160,000,000 – $210,000,000 | $180,000,000 | $443,000,000 – $590,000,000 | $503,000,000 | -1% | Universal Pictures | |
| 6/17/2022 | Lightyear | $90,000,000 – $120,000,000 | $300,000,000 – $415,000,000 | Disney / Pixar | ||||
| 6/24/2022 | The Black Phone | $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $45,000,000 – $70,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||||
| 6/24/2022 | Elvis | $35,000,000 – $55,000,000 | $110,000,000 – $170,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||||
| 7/1/2022 | Minions: The Rise of Gru | $65,000,000 – $80,000,000 | $244,000,000 – $287,000,000 | Universal Pictures |
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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