The unexpected tentpole release of the fall, Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour, is shaping up as a welcome blockbuster performer for exhibition. This week’s report takes an early peek at how it could shake up the box office.
The Eras Tour
AMC Theatres / Variance Films
October 13, 2023
Opening Weekend Range: $96M-$145M
PROS:
- Taylor Swift has stood at the peak of pop culture this year with the first round of her wildly popular Eras tour, estimated back in August to be the first-ever tour to generate over $1B.
- Early pre-sales for this theatrical event, running on multiple weekends through October and early November, generated demand comparable to major opening weekends from the Marvel and Star Wars franchises.
- As exhibitors have continued to jump on board and add showtimes, including those with premium formats, The Eras Tour has posted numerous sellouts already.
- Ticket prices will be well above the average of standard film releases, with admissions going for $19.89 or $13.13 (references to her album titles).
CONS:
- As a highly unique release relying mostly on promotion from Swift and her social media channels so far, all bets are off in terms of traditional tracking—especially with a distribution strategy that sees the film playing primarily on weekends (for now) and lacking a traditional marketing campaign.
- “Swifties,” as her fans call themselves, drove the initial onslaught of rabid ticket sales upon Swift’s own announcement of the film. It remains to be seen how interest will reach outside of her loyal, yet extensive, fan base.
- Adding to the volatility of forecasts, any potential extension of the theatrical run into the holiday season could be a factor to watch for.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/14/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 9/22/2023 | Barbie (IMAX Release) | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||||
| 9/22/2023 | Dumb Money (Moderate Expansion) | Sony Pictures / Columbia | ||||
| 9/22/2023 | Expend4bles | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | -16% | $24,000,000 – $37,500,000 | -16% | Lionsgate |
| 9/22/2023 | It Lives Inside | NEON | ||||
| 9/29/2023 | The Creator | $15,000,000 – $22,000,000 | -5% | $40,000,000 – $78,000,000 | -5% | 20th Century Studios |
| 9/29/2023 | Dumb Money (Wide Expansion) | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $14,000,000 – $42,000,000 | Sony Pictures / Columbia | ||
| 9/29/2023 | PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $48,000,000 | Paramount Pictures | ||
| 9/29/2023 | Saw X | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $22,000,000 – $35,000,000 | Lionsgate | ||
| 9/29/2023 | Untitled Universal Event Film | Universal Pictures | ||||
| 10/6/2023 | The Exorcist: Believer | $18,000,000 – $27,000,000 | +5% | $41,000,000 – $69,000,000 | +5% | Universal Pictures |
| 10/6/2023 | Foe | Amazon Studios | ||||
| 10/6/2023 | Cat Person | Rialto Pictures | ||||
| 10/6/2023 | Freeland | Freelance | ||||
| 10/6/2023 | Untitled Focus Features Film | Focus Features | ||||
| 10/13/2023 | Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | $96,000,000 – $145,000,000 | TBD | AMC Theatres / Variance Films |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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