This week’s report dives into the the beginning of 2023’s fourth quarter, with with early analysis and projections for the next horror offering on this fall’s theatrical menu.
The Exorcist: Believer
Universal Pictures
October 6, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $18M-$27M
Domestic Total Range: $41M-$69M
PROS:
- Universal, Blumhouse, and director David Gordon Green previously revitalized the Halloween franchise with strong box office success, most recently sending 2022’s Halloween Ends to a $40 million opening weekend.
- Horror has been a steadily reliable genre, and Believer‘s timely release this October could be advantageous. Ditto for its premium screen footprint.
- Initial pre-sale and social media trends are encouraging, and it’s not impossible for this film’s second weekend—which includes “Friday the 13th” on the calendar—to catch some spillover business from the expected blockbuster crowds selling out Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour.
CONS:
- Beyond the iconic original film, The Exorcist franchise hasn’t historically driven big performances, with the most recent wide release in the series (2004’s Exorcist: The Beginning) posting $41.8 million domestically during its entire run.
- That two-decade absence from pop culture could limit appeal to younger audiences who are often at the heart of horror movie box office breakouts. That’s especially true for young women who will be preoccupied with the release of Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour one week later.
- The crowded market for horror and horror-adjacent films this season may also be a factor to watch for, as Believer‘s release shortly follows September’s The Nun II, A Haunting in Venice, and Saw X, while preceding late October’s Five Nights at Freddy’s.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/7/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 9/15/2023 | A Haunting in Venice | $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 | 25% | $42,000,000 – $60,000,000 | 22% | Disney / 20th Century Studios |
| 9/15/2023 | Amerikatsi | Variance Films / Everest Films | ||||
| 9/15/2023 | Camp Hideout | Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 9/15/2023 | Dumb Money (Platform LA / NY / Chicago / DC / Boston / San Francisco) | Sony Pictures / Columbia | ||||
| 9/22/2023 | Barbie (IMAX Release) | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||||
| 9/22/2023 | Dumb Money (Moderate Expansion) | Sony Pictures / Columbia | ||||
| 9/22/2023 | Expend4bles | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $31,000,000 – $45,000,000 | Lionsgate | ||
| 9/22/2023 | It Lives Inside | NEON | ||||
| 9/29/2023 | The Creator | $15,000,000 – $24,000,000 | $40,000,000 – $85,000,000 | 20th Century Studios | ||
| 9/29/2023 | Dumb Money (Wide Expansion) | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $14,000,000 – $42,000,000 | Sony Pictures / Columbia | ||
| 9/29/2023 | PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $48,000,000 | Paramount Pictures | ||
| 9/29/2023 | Saw X | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $22,000,000 – $35,000,000 | Lionsgate | ||
| 9/29/2023 | Untitled Universal Event Film | Universal Pictures | ||||
| 10/6/2023 | The Exorcist: Believer | $18,000,000 – $27,000,000 | $41,000,000 – $69,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 10/6/2023 | Foe | Amazon Studios | ||||
| 10/6/2023 | Cat Person | Rialto Pictures | ||||
| 10/6/2023 | Freeland | Freelance |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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