Long Range Box Office Forecast: The Lost City, Plus The Batman‘s Latest Tracking Update

This week’s report welcomes the addition of Paramount Pictures’ The Lost City to the Long Range Forecast. Led by Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum, the comedy is slated to open exclusively in theaters on Friday, March 25.

In addition, the chart below includes the latest tracking update for next week’s highly anticipated launch of The Batman, as well as the removal of Guy Ritchie’s Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre from the forecast and calendar following STXfilms’ un-dating of the picture late last week.

The Lost City
Paramount Pictures
March 25, 2022

PROS:

• In an era when star power is often questioned, Bullock and Tatum each have arguments in their favor when it comes to drawing ability at the box office.
  
  Bullock has long history of success in the comedic genre from the Miss Congeniality films to The Proposal, Ocean’s 8, and The Blind Side, while Tatum expanded his audience through the Jump Street and Magic Mike franchises before recently helping to drive Dog above expectations.

• Early tracking and social metrics for the comedy are on par with pre-pandemic releases such as Game Night and Blockers, both of which leveraged strong casts in the way Lost City hopes to with Daniel Radcliffe and Brad Pitt making well-promoted supporting turns. Current models are also not far behind those of Free Guy, with room to grow on all fronts.

• By the end of March, the domestic market will be relatively barren. This film’s release weekend will mark The Batman‘s fourth, and no intervening openers before March 25 will stand out with mainstream audiences in the way Lost City is bidding to.

• The film’s promise of escapist comedy with appeal to men and women should be a strength as we hope to get a clearer sense of audience sentiment heading into spring as COVID cases decline, especially with a theatrically exclusive release.

CONS:

• This genre isn’t well-tested during the pandemic era yet and could be a significant barometer of what content consumers prioritize in theaters versus a later streaming release, so forecasts are naturally volatile until closer to release.
  
  Pre-sale activity isn’t likely to signal the full potential of its run, either, with significant “date night” and walk-up business expected for a non-IP release. Reviews, by extension, could be important for determining staying power.

• Appeal is likely to lean slightly toward adult women, an audience that — until Dog‘s over-performance — has frequently been the most cautious to return to moviegoing.

• Competition in the stretch weekends will be worth considering as Morbius (April 1), Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (April 8), and Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (April 15) immediately proceed The Lost City‘s first frame.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 2/25/22)

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

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