Long Range Box Office Forecast: Uncharted, Death on the Nile, Jackass Forever, and Q1 Prospects through Presidents’ Day Frame

Although the new year has begun rather slowly in terms of new releases, the late winter and early spring movie calendar isn’t far off as we reach the back end of January.

It will still be a few more weeks before the box office truly ramps up to consistent levels again, but February will at least begin an upward progression that — as usual, pending the state of the pandemic — should see a steadier state of mainstream films bring in valuable business for exhibitors.

This week’s return of the Long Range report looks four weeks out with an eye on major releases through Presidents’ Day weekend.

Based on early January trends and projections for the next month, it should be around that time frame when domestic box office approaches the $500 million threshold for 2022 — a feat which didn’t occur until the middle of May last year due to the prolonged impact of pandemic closures and slim release slates.

Jackass Forever
February 4

PROS:

• The Jackass franchise was a runaway box office smash during the brand’s heyday, earning more than $356 million domestically and $488 million globally across four films between 2002 and 2013.

• Appeal to male audiences appears to be healthy as one of the few straight-up comedies to release during the pandemic so far. Nostalgia is likely to drive both some of the series’ older fans and today’s younger generation out to theaters for this latest entry.

• The release slate has been virtually empty, outside of the successful Scream sequel, since the 2021 holiday season wrapped up. Some pent-up demand is likely for a short comedy with built-in IP.

CONS:

• It’s fair to question whether or not Jackass Forever can reach the box office heights of its predecessors. A new generation of youth has emerged since the last film, 2013’s Bad Grandpa, opened to $32 million and legged out to $102 million. That kind of staying power may not be likely here since the three traditional Jackass films — particularly the second and third entries — were far more front-loaded, but it doesn’t need to be for such inexpensive films.

• Jackass was a franchise that came of age at a very different time in the entertainment world. Since the rise of streaming and other entertainment mediums like TikTok, it remains to be seen how much of the target audience not only remains interested, but also what share of that crowd will rush out to theaters versus wait for a streaming release.

• Although not necessarily connected to Jackass directly, the box office misfire of 2018’s Action Park (starring Johnny Knoxville) is worth keeping in mind alongside the aforementioned generational concerns.

Moonfall
February 4

PROS:

• A large-scale, escapist action flick with star names and appeal to a somewhat more diverse audience on the same weekend as Jackass Forever could make for a solid counter-programming strategy, especially with a premium format presence in IMAX.

CONS:

• Initial marketing and trailers have generated mixed social media traction with preliminary tracking metrics similar to those of 2017’s Geostorm. Audience interest in the “global destruction” sub-genre, which has waned from its late 90s and early 00s peak, will be tested with this kind of release.

Death on the Nile
February 11

PROS:

• 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express was a solid hit for Fox and star/director Kenneth Branagh thanks to excellent marketing and built-in brand appeal among Agatha Christie fans. The film earned nearly $103 million domestically and $353 million worldwide.

• With another ensemble cast of star names, and after multiple trailers and release delays over the past two years, the sequel’s exposure is certainly respectable enough for a mid-range film.

CONS:

• While some diminished returns were expected for a somewhat lesser-known (but still popular) novel before the pandemic became a consideration, the target audience is crucial to consider. Orient Express drew moviegoers predominately female (56 percent) and over the age of 35 (51 percent) on opening weekend over four years ago. That crowd remains the most cautious during the pandemic box office recovery era.

Marry Me
February 11

PROS:

• Jennifer Lopez has a solid track record in the romantic-comedy genre, and most recently broke out yet again with 2019’s Hustlers. Coupled with Owen Wilson in a co-leading role, this film is well-timed for date night moviegoers around Valentine’s Day (which lands the Monday after opening weekend).

CONS:

• Once again, this is a film targeted toward the audience most slowly returning to cinemas during the pandemic. Coupled with a simultaneous free streaming release on Peacock, box office earnings are unlikely to reach the heights of past successful rom-coms which opened this time of year.

Dog
February 18

PROS:

• A feel-good “buddy” movie with a star name and comedic touch could find strong appeal among families returning to movie theaters. Channing Tatum provides a strong drawing element, and the four-day holiday weekend is primed for parents and kids to turn out. Strong legs, rather than a large debut, should be expected.

CONS:

• The proliferation of dog-centric movies (A Dog’s Journey, A Dog’s Purpose, A Dog’s Way Home, The Art of Racing in the Rain, etc.) in recent years could have some minor impact on overall demand regardless of the pandemic market. Forecasts are also volatile due to the evolving nature of the family audience during the pandemic.

Uncharted
February 18

PROS:

• Tom Holland and Mark Wahlberg provide an integral star presence to this video game adaptation, with the former notably fresh off the phenomenal success of Spider-Man: No Way Home. Combined with the best-selling game’s built-in fan base, appeal to a somewhat diverse range of young and adult audiences could be in store.

• Presidents’ Day weekend is timely for this kind of action-adventure release. Uncharted‘s preliminary social metrics aren’t far behind those of 2015’s Kingsman: The Secret Service when it bowed to $41.8 million over the same four-day holiday frame. Early tracking against 2018’s Rampage is also comparable, and a strong PLF footprint will also be advantageous for Uncharted.

CONS:

• Video game adaptations have a sorted history, to say the least. Until 2019’s Detective Pikachu, none had exceeded a $40 million three-day debut outside of 2001’s Lara Croft: Tomb Raider ($47.7 million).

• Trailer views and social imprints are considerably high thanks in part to a trailer attachment with No Way Home throughout its record-shattering theatrical run, but sentiment scores have left something to be desired. This could indicate reviews and word of mouth will be even more important for any breakout chances at the box office, especially as it opens just two weeks before The Batman.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 1/21/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
1/28/2022	You Won’t Be Alone					n/a	Focus Features
2/4/2022	Jackass Forever	$23,000,000 – $33,000,000		$48,000,000 – $68,000,000		3,200	Paramount Pictures
2/4/2022	Moonfall	$8,000,000 – $15,000,000		$20,000,000 – $50,000,000		3,200	Lionsgate
2/11/2022	The Beatles: Get Back – The Rooftop Concert						Disney
2/11/2022	Death on the Nile	$14,000,000 – $19,000,000		$45,000,000 – $70,000,000			Disney / 20th Century Studios
2/11/2022	Marry Me	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$22,000,000 – $42,000,000			Universal Pictures
2/18/2022	Dog	$8,000,000 – $15,000,000		$30,000,000 – $65,000,000			MGM
2/18/2022	Uncharted	$25,000,000 – $40,000,000		$65,000,000 – $105,000,000			Sony Pictures / Columbia
2/25/2022	Cyrano (Wide Expansion)						United Artists Releasing
2/25/2022	The Devil’s Light						Lionsgate
2/25/2022	The Outfit						Focus Features
3/4/2022	The Batman						Warner Bros. Pictures
3/4/2022	Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris						Focus Features
3/11/2022	Untitled Universal Musical Event						Universal Pictures
3/18/2022	Downton Abbey: A New Era						Focus Features
3/18/2022	Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre						STXfilms
3/18/2022	The Unbreakable Boy						Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
3/25/2022	The Lost City						Paramount Pictures
4/1/2022	The Contractor						STXfilms
4/1/2022	Easter Sunday						Universal Pictures
4/1/2022	Morbius						Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/8/2022	Ambulance						Universal Pictures
4/8/2022	Untitled Searchlight						Walt Disney Pictures
4/8/2022	Untitled Universal Event Film 2022 2						Universal Pictures
4/8/2022	Sonic the Hedgehog 2						Paramount Pictures
4/15/2022	Eiffel						Blue Fox Entertainment
4/15/2022	Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore						Warner Bros. Pictures
4/15/2022	Untitled WB Event Film 2022 1						Warner Bros. Pictures
4/22/2022	The Bad Guys						Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
4/22/2022	The Northman						Focus Features
4/22/2022	The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent						Lionsgate
4/29/2022	65						Sony / Columbia Pictures
5/6/2022	Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness						Disney / Marvel Studios
5/13/2022	Untitled Blumhouse Productions Project 2022 1						Universal Pictures
5/20/2022	DC Super Pets						Warner Bros. Pictures
5/27/2022	Bob’s Burgers						Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022	Top Gun Maverick						Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022	Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2						Warner Bros. Pictures
6/10/2022	Jurassic World: Dominion						Universal Pictures
6/10/2022	Untitled Searchlight						Disney / Searchlight
6/17/2022	Lightyear						Disney / Pixar
6/17/2022	Oh Hell No						Sony Pictures
6/24/2022	The Black Phone						Universal Pictures
6/24/2022	Elvis						Warner Bros. Pictures
6/24/2022	Untitled Blumhouse Project						Universal Pictures
6/29/2022	Shotgun Wedding						Lionsgate
7/1/2022	Minions: The Rise of Gru						Universal Pictures
7/8/2022	Thor: Love and Thunder						Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022	Bed Rest						STXfilms
7/15/2022	Bullet Train						Sony Pictures
7/22/2022	Nope						Universal Pictures
7/22/2022	Under the Boardwalk						Paramount Pictures
7/22/2022	Where the Crawdads Sing						Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/29/2022	Black Adam						Warner Bros. Pictures
8/5/2022	Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3						Warner Bros. Pictures
8/12/2022	Secret Headquarters						Paramount Pictures
8/12/2022	Untitled Searchlight						Disney / Searchlight
8/12/2022	Bros						Universal Pictures
8/12/2022	Man from Toronto						Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/19/2022	Beast						Universal Pictures
8/26/2022	The Bride						Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022	Samaritan						United Artists Releasing
9/2/2022	(no releases scheduled)
9/9/2022	Salem’s Lot						Warner Bros. / New Line
9/16/2022	Distant						Universal Pictures
9/16/2022	White Bird: A Wonder Story						Lionsgate
9/16/2022	The Woman King						Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022	Don’t Worry Darling						Warner Bros. Pictures
9/23/2022	Puss In Boots: The Last Wish						Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
9/23/2022	Untitled 20th Century 2022 3						Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/30/2022	Mission: Impossible 7						Paramount Pictures
10/7/2022	Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)						Sony Pictures
10/14/2022	Halloween Ends						Universal Pictures
10/21/2022	Ticket to Paradise						Universal Pictures
10/21/2022	Untitled Paramount						Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022	(no releases scheduled)
11/4/2022	The Flash						Warner Bros. Pictures
11/4/2022	Untitled Bee Gees						Paramount Pictures
11/4/2022	Untitled David O. Russell						Disney / 20th Century Studios
11/11/2022	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever						Disney / Marvel Studios
11/18/2022	Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile						Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/18/2022	Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4						Warner Bros. Pictures
11/18/2022	She Said						Universal Pictures
11/23/2022	Creed III						MGM
11/23/2022	The Fabelmans						Universal Pictures
11/23/2022	Strange World						Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022	Violent Night						Universal Pictures
12/9/2022	(no releases scheduled)
12/16/2022	Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom						Warner Bros. Pictures
12/21/2022	Avatar 2						Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022	Mario						Universal Pictures
12/23/2022	I Wanna Dance With Somebody						Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/23/2022	Untitled 20th Century 2022 6						Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/30/2022	(no releases scheduled)

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.