Despite a slew of horror / thriller releases opening early in 2020, including one potentially standout example in February (The Invisible Man), late March is slated to deliver what will likely be the year’s first bona fide genre event when A Quiet Place Part II opens on Friday, March 20.
We’ve also updated tracking for a number of upcoming titles in the chart below, most notably Sonic the Hedgehog.
A Quiet Place Part II
Opening Weekend Range: $60 – 80 million
PROS:
- The first film was a runaway success for Paramount two years ago after an intense and effective marketing campaign helped generate excitement for the original property, delivering a $50.2 million domestic opening weekend — the highest ever for an original film in April.
- The original’s ability to build on that strong opening with a 3.75x multiplier proved it wasn’t front-loaded and that audiences were incredibly receptive to the film. Staying power was more akin to that of the first Conjuring film than front-loaded examples like It or Halloween.
- Early social metrics for the sequel are strong as the trailer has generated sentiment and impressions comparable to previous blockbuster openings from the genre like Us and the aforementioned Halloween. An opening on that scale would land this sequel in the top ten March openings of all-time (Us holds the horror genre record for the same month at $71.1 million).
- Emily Blunt’s return — as well as another directorial effort from John Krasinski — provide the kind of creative consistency that should fuel hype for the apparent world-building sequel.
CONS:
- Despite generally enthusiastic responses, the first trailer suggests this film will be less about “staying quiet” while doubling down on the amount of action taking place. If indicative of the film itself, that would deviate from part of the first film’s successful formula, while placing further importance on the story moving forward organically without falling into the traps of genre sequels.
- With a potential — if not likely — higher opening weekend than the previous film (provided pre-release reviews and buzz hold to current indications), it’s safe to expect more front-loading in the long run, especially since the sequel will have to compete with Mulan and April’s No Time to Die for certain audience segments and premium screens.
Estimated Location Counts
- Gretel and Hansel (2,500+ studio estimate)
- The Rhythm Section (3,000 studio estimate)
- Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (3,900+ projection)
8-Week Tracking and Forecasts
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Range | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 1/31/2020 | Gretel and Hansel | $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 | $5,000,000 | -10% | $8,000,000 – $16,000,000 | $10,000,000 | -10% | United Artists Releasing |
| 1/31/2020 | The Rhythm Section | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $10,000,000 | -17% | $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $30,000,000 | -21% | Paramount |
| 2/7/2020 | Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $49,000,000 | $100,000,000 – $150,000,000 | $125,000,000 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 2/14/2020 | Fantasy Island | $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 | $15,500,000 | -9% | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $40,000,000 | -10% | Sony / Columbia |
| 2/14/2020 | The Photograph | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $13,000,000 | -13% | $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $30,000,000 | -14% | Universal |
| 2/14/2020 | Sonic the Hedgehog | $30,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $33,000,000 | 27% | $90,000,000 – $130,000,000 | $115,000,000 | 34% | Paramount |
| 2/21/2020 | Brahms: The Boy 2 | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $15,000,000 – $28,000,000 | $17,800,000 | STX | ||
| 2/21/2020 | Call of the Wild | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $50,000,000 – $65,000,000 | $50,000,000 | Fox | ||
| 2/28/2020 | The Invisible Man | $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $60,000,000 – $105,000,000 | $80,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 3/6/2020 | Onward | $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 | $60,000,000 | $175,000,000 – $250,000,000 | $227,000,000 | Disney / Pixar | ||
| 3/6/2020 | The Way Back | $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $43,500,000 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 3/13/2020 | Bloodshot | $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $36,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 3/13/2020 | I Still Believe | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $14,500,000 | $44,000,000 – $59,000,000 | $49,000,000 | Lionsgate | ||
| 3/13/2020 | My Spy | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $36,000,000 | STX | ||
| 3/13/2020 | Untitled Blumhouse Productions Project | n/a | n/a | Universal | ||||
| 3/20/2020 | A Quiet Place Part II | $60,000,000 – $80,000,000 | $72,000,000 | NEW | $140,000,000 – $190,000,000 | $168,000,000 | NEW | Paramount |
Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice’s suite of forecasting and data services.
Share this post