This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast welcomes two films currently slated to open on January 19, 2018. Our preliminary analysis and detailed forecasts:
PROS:
- Based on a true story, 12 Strong will hope to find appeal among military families, older male audiences, and fans of Chris Hemsworth and Michael Shannon. The film’s early social media footprint is respectable, but future marketing will be key to watch. Den of Thieves will similarly be aiming for the older male demo with Gerard Butler leading the heist film. As the first action flicks of the new year targeting that particular crowd, one or the other could find a solid audience if reviews come in on the positive side.
CONS:
- Hemsworth hasn’t been a major box office draw outside the Marvel universe yet (see Blackhat), while Butler’s own drawing power has somewhat diminished following the lukewarm performance of Geostorm. Opening after what is expected to be a busy holiday weekend could leave both of these films with little audience to scavenge, especially since stronger competition will follow in the weeks soon after.
The 8-Week Forecast:
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Location Count | Distributor |
| 12/8/2017 | The Disaster Artist | n/a | n/a | A24 | |||
| 12/8/2017 | Just Getting Started | $8,000,000 | $36,000,000 | Broad Green Pictures | |||
| 12/15/2017 | Ferdinand | $20,000,000 | $150,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 12/15/2017 | Star Wars: The Last Jedi | $215,000,000 | $742,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 12/20/2017 | The Greatest Showman on Earth | $11,000,000 | $75,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 12/20/2017 | Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle | $22,000,000 | $175,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 12/22/2017 | All the Money in the World | n/a | n/a | TriStar | |||
| 12/22/2017 | Downsizing | $10,000,000 | $59,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 12/22/2017 | Pitch Perfect 3 | $40,000,000 | $136,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 12/22/2017 | Father Figures | $7,000,000 | $41,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 12/29/2017 | (no films scheduled currently) | – | – | – | |||
| 1/5/2018 | Insidious: The Last Key | $19,500,000 | $34,500,000 | Universal | |||
| 1/5/2018 | Molly’s Game | $6,000,000 | $21,000,000 | STXfilms | |||
| 1/12/2018 | The Commuter | $12,000,000 | $31,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 1/12/2018 | Condorito: La Pelicula | $5,000,000 | $12,500,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 1/12/2018 | Paddington 2 | $19,000,000 | $70,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 1/12/2018 | The Post (expansion) | $20,000,000 | $90,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 1/12/2018 | Proud Mary | $17,000,000 | $55,000,000 | Sony / Screen Gems | |||
| 1/19/2018 | Den of Thieves | $6,500,000 | NEW | $13,000,000 | NEW | STXfilms | |
| 1/19/2018 | 12 Strong | $10,000,000 | NEW | $36,000,000 | NEW | Warner Bros. |
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