This week’s report welcomes two new additions to our Long Range Forecast covering wide openers slated for Friday, September 20. Excluded is Focus Features’ Downton Abbey film, which we’re withholding forecasts on until its release strategy is more clearly detailed.
Ad Astra
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million
PROS:
- Brad Pitt and a solid ensemble cast could turn out to be significant draws among adult audiences, particularly with Pitt coming back to the cinema forefront in this summer’s Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood.
- The film’s PLF and IMAX footprint should boost initial earnings with premium ticket prices in tow. The film’s release window could also be a strength with modest competition for adults and a decent gap between It: Chapter Two earlier in September and October’s Joker.
CONS:
- The film’s release delays aren’t the most encouraging of signs, and it remains to be seen how strongly Disney markets the title after having inherited it in the Fox acquisition. We’re also cautious given last fall’s muted run by the acclaimed First Man.
- Social media growth at this stage of tracking hasn’t stood out in a significant way considering it’s a novel adaptation, but there’s plenty of time for that to change once summer wraps up.
Rambo: Last Blood
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million
PROS:
- Sylvester Stallone’s fan base should be a strength here as older male audiences have turned out to support several of his recent releases, most notably the Expendables franchise.
CONS:
- It’s questionable whether or not this can repeat the kind of success 2008’s Rambo revival did given the recent saturation of similar nostalgic action franchises (which haven’t always met box office expectations).
8-Week Forecast
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Release Tracking | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 8/2/2019 | Hobbs & Shaw | $89,000,000 | $218,000,000 | 4,200 | Universal | ||
| 8/9/2019 | The Art of Racing In the Rain | $8,500,000 | $32,000,000 | 3,000 | Fox | ||
| 8/9/2019 | Brian Banks | n/a | n/a | n/a | Bleecker Street | ||
| 8/9/2019 | Dora and the Lost City of Gold | $28,000,000 | $85,000,000 | 3,500 | Paramount | ||
| 8/9/2019 | The Kitchen (2019) | $11,500,000 | $34,500,000 | 2,700 | Warner Bros. / New Line | ||
| 8/9/2019 | Scary Stories to Tell In the Dark | $11,000,000 | 10% | $29,000,000 | 9% | 2,400 | Lionsgate / CBS Films |
| 8/14/2019 | The Angry Birds Movie 2 | $19,000,000 | $70,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 8/16/2019 | 47 Meters Down: Uncaged | $15,000,000 | $39,000,000 | Entertainment Studios | |||
| 8/16/2019 | Blinded By the Light | n/a | n/a | Warner Bros. | |||
| 8/16/2019 | Good Boys | $15,000,000 | $43,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 8/16/2019 | Where’d You Go, Bernadette | $11,000,000 | $45,000,000 | United Artists Releasing | |||
| 8/23/2019 | Angel Has Fallen | $17,000,000 | $49,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 8/23/2019 | Overcomer | $6,500,000 | $24,000,000 | Sony / AFFIRM Films | |||
| 8/23/2019 | Ready or Not | n/a | n/a | Fox Searchlight | |||
| 8/30/2019 | Las Píldoras De Mi Novio (My Boyfriend’s Meds) | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate | |||
| 8/30/2019 | PLAYMOBIL: The Movie | $4,000,000 | $10,000,000 | STX | |||
| 9/6/2019 | It: Chapter 2 | $136,000,000 | $305,000,000 | Warner Bros. / New Line | |||
| 9/13/2019 | The Goldfinch | $10,000,000 | $33,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 9/13/2019 | Hustlers | $13,000,000 | $39,000,000 | STX | |||
| 9/20/2019 | Ad Astra | $20,000,000 | NEW | $65,000,000 | NEW | Fox | |
| 9/20/2019 | Downton Abbey | n/a | n/a | Universal | |||
| 9/20/2019 | Rambo: Last Blood | $14,500,000 | NEW | $35,000,000 | NEW | Lionsgate |
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Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report
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