This week’s update welcomes the addition of one new release slated to open Friday, October 25 as part of our look at the final weekend before holiday movie season kicks off in November. We also provide key updates on September’s high profile releases below.
Black and Blue
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million
PROS:
- Stars Naomie Harris and Tyrese Gibson provide star presence in this LAPD cop drama that won’t face direct competition during its key release window in late October/early November. Strong reviews and word of mouth could push it as a counter-programming option.
- Sony / Screen Gems have a solid track record with past autumn releases like When the Bough Breaks, The Perfect Guy, and No Good Deed.
CONS:
- Some of the more controversial comparisons between this film’s narrative and real life cultural events could limit the overall potential of this film relative to those more escapism-leaning Screen Gems releases.
Notable Updates This Week
- Following last week’s revision, forecasts for It: Chapter Two continue floating down to earth as our most recent models indicate the sequel/finale is trending below its 2017 predecessor. Still, it’s pacing well ahead of any other horror release on record and we can’t rule out a last minute pop of interest after the Labor Day weekend ahead — especially since the first film’s pre-sales began at an incomparable period before release relative to this chapter’s.
- Conversely, STX’s Hustlers is looking more and more like a breakout candidate with a strong female interest base and healthier-than-expected metrics from male audiences of varying ages.
- Recent industry tracking for Ad Astra and Rambo: Last Blood suggest it may not be as much of a runaway for the former title that weekend as we’ve been expecting — and could even switch. That said, we’re holding off on significant changes until after the Labor Day market has cleared and signs begin to firm up with both pics targeting older males (but Astra having a stronger chance to win over adult female moviegoers). Among the two, Astra‘s marketing push remains more impressive at this stage, and it will have the aid of an IMAX release.
- Following the comedy’s first trailer release last week, our initial forecast for Jexi is available in the chart below. Based on preliminary trends, we’re expecting films like Long Shot, Stuber, and Don Jon to be close comps for the Lionsgate/CBS Films release. Some upside exists with regard to staying power if reviews prove positive, although Zombieland 2 will be its main competitor for moviegoers in search of laughs.
8-Week Forecast
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 9/6/2019 | It: Chapter Two | $90,000,000 – $130,000,000 | $105,000,000 | -12% | $255,000,000 | -12% | 4,400 | Warner Bros. / New Line |
| 9/13/2019 | The Goldfinch | $7,500,000 – $12,500,000 | $9,000,000 | -5% | $29,000,000 | -6% | 3,000 | Warner Bros. |
| 9/13/2019 | Hustlers | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $27,000,000 | 29% | $73,000,000 | 22% | 3,100 | STX |
| 9/20/2019 | Ad Astra | $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $65,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 9/20/2019 | Downton Abbey | $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 | $15,000,000 | n/a | Universal | |||
| 9/20/2019 | Rambo: Last Blood | $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $17,000,000 | 17% | $41,000,000 | 17% | Lionsgate | |
| 9/27/2019 | Abominable | $19,000,000 – $24,000,000 | $22,500,000 | $75,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 10/4/2019 | Joker | $70,000,000 – $95,000,000 | $81,000,000 | $180,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 10/11/2019 | The Addams Family (2019) | $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 | $18,000,000 | $70,000,000 | United Artists Releasing | |||
| 10/11/2019 | The Current War (Expansion) | n/a | n/a | n/a | 101 Studios | |||
| 10/11/2019 | Gemini Man | $25,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $28,000,000 | $90,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 10/11/2019 | Jexi | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $9,000,000 | NEW | $29,000,000 | NEW | Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One | |
| 10/18/2019 | Maleficent: Mistress of Evil | $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $37,000,000 | $110,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 10/18/2019 | Zombieland 2: Double Tap | $24,000,000 – $34,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $77,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 10/25/2019 | Black and Blue | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | NEW | $35,000,000 | NEW | Sony / Screen Gems | |
| 10/25/2019 | Countdown | n/a | n/a | n/a | STX | |||
| 10/25/2019 | The Last Full Measure | n/a | n/a | n/a | Roadside Attractions |
Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice’s suite of forecasting and data services.
Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report
Share this post