Long Range Forecast — August 16, 2024
Alien: Romulus | 20th Century Studios | Disney
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $35M-$50M
Summer 2024 continues its march into fall with the August 16 release of Alien: Romulus from 20th Century Studios. Since its launch in 1979 with Ridley Scott’s Alien, the Alien franchise has been something of a summer staple, launching six of its nine entries in either May (Alien, 1992’s Alien 3, 2017’s Alien: Covenant), June (2012’s Prometheus), July (1986’s Aliens), or August (2004’s AVP: Alien vs. Predator, 2024’s Alien: Romulus). Twice then-distributor 20th Century Fox went with holiday weekend releases–Thanksgiving for 1997’s Alien: Resurrection and Christmas for 2007’s Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem—yielding the two worst franchise performers at the domestic box office. The failure of Requiem, the worst earner of the Alien films both domestically and worldwide, was followed by an eight-year gap before Scott took back the reins with 2012’s Prometheus.
With a decades-long gap between Romulus and the pre-hiatus Alien films, the earlier films’ box office totals aren’t particularly useful in predicting Romulus‘ performance; that said, it’s worth noting that the only other Alien film to come out in August, 2004’s AVP: Alien vs. Predator, took advantage of scant competition–the only other movie opening to 3,000-plus screens that weekend was The Princess Diaries 2: Royal Engagement—to claim the number one spot at the box office. Since Warner Bros. pulled Horizon: An American Saga: Part 2 from the release calendar, Romulus has the weekend (and premium screens) to itself except for films with a much smaller footprint. Looking at other genre films aimed at adult audiences, the second weekend of Lionsgate video game adaptation Borderlands is unlikely to provide much by way of competition. However, if Deadpool & Wolverine is the box office behemoth the industry hopes for, it will draw audiences well past its late July opening weekend and eat into Romulus‘ take. Third-weekend grosses comprised roughly 20 percent of the opening weekend for the previous two Deadpool films. If that trend follows, Deadpool & Wolverine would still be on track to earn somewhere in the $30-$50M range by the time Romulus comes out.
For Romulus, our box office forecasting panel predicts an opening of $35-$50M, a range that roughly aligns with Alien: Covenant ($36.1M) on the low end and Prometheus ($51M) on the high end. Both films were subject to middling reviews, so some positive buzz for Romulus early on could nudge predictions upwards. That $51M earned by Prometheus over opening weekend was higher than expected at the time, given the film was opening against Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted—which, aside from belonging to a billion-dollar franchise, debuted on just shy of 900 screens more than Prometheus. Clearly, there existed a demand for the rebirth of the Alien franchise. It remains to be seen whether the passing of seven years between the much-derided (evidenced by a B CinemaScore and a 70 percent second-weekend drop) Alien: Covenant and Romulus, combined with the presence of a new director (Fede Alvarez instead of Ridley Scott) and a shift, evidenced in marketing, from Scott’s particular brand of cosmic mythology back to more straightforward horror, is sufficient for that demand to be rekindled. Looking outside the Alien franchise, the first half of August has been hit-or-miss for action/genre titles over the last five years, with only 2022’s Bullet Train ($30,030,156) and last year’s Meg 2: The Trench ($30,002,735) reaching the $30M mark—and those just barely.
Tracking Updates [as of 7/16]
| Release Date | Title | Opening Weekend Range | Distributor |
| 7/26/24 | Deadpool & Wolverine | $180 – $220M | Disney |
| 8/2/24 | Harold and the Purple Crayon | $8 – $12M | Sony |
| 8/2/24 | Trap | $15 – $25M | Warner Bros. |
| 8/9/24 | It Ends with Us | $20 – $35M | Sony |
| 8/9/24 | Borderlands | $10M – $20M | Lionsgate |
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