This week’s report welcomes the addition of four new films slated to open Friday, November 8 as our preliminary look at the 2019 holiday season continues.
PROS:
- Doctor Sleep boasts not only the pedigree of serving as the long-awaited sequel to horror classic The Shining, but star Ewan McGregor and director Mike Flanagan — the latter fresh off major success in the genre with Netflix’s The Haunting of Hill House. Early social and trailer trends are indicative of a potential box office hit should reviews and audience reception prove favorable.
- Last Christmas will offer up a date night-friendly rom-com perfectly timed for the long holiday runway through November and December (perhaps not unlike 2003’s Love Actually). The first trailer was a hit with social media, director Paul Feig (Bridesmaids, A Simple Favor) is no stranger to crowd-pleasing box office success, and stars Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones) and Henry Golding (Crazy Rich Asians) should attract their respective fans.
- Adult males will be the target audience for Midway as Lionsgate positions the film in the same corridor they did for Hacksaw Ridge three years ago. With a star-driven ensemble, the film only needs healthy reviews and/or word of mouth to generate a respectable late fall run.
- John Cena’s rise to comedic prowess in films like Blockers, Bumblebee, and Ferdinand is an advantage for Playing with Fire, particularly among family audiences who don’t have many alternative options in early November.
CONS:
- Doctor Sleep‘s primary barrier to breakout status could be how reliant it is on younger audience familiarity with the source Stephen King novels and/or The Shining. That crowd has proven to be a big element in the breakout nature of recent horror hits.
- Christmas-themed movies have historically been all over the map in terms of box office track records, as have rom-coms in recent years with very few examples of standout performances. Still, so far, Last Christmas looks like a solid candidate to be excluded from those trends.
- Director Roland Emmerich’s most recent films (Independence Day: Resurgence and White House Down) were notable box office misfires, unfortunately. Midway isn’t quite as high profile of a release as those summer films were, so marketing and reception both will be crucial to the bottom line. Overseas performance may ultimately be its strong point, though.
- Last year’s Instant Family aimed for a similar crowd as Playing with Fire and, despite strong reviews, wasn’t able to reach the breakout status Paramount had hoped for by moving its release date up to November. Comparable family-driven titles in past years have misfired or performed modestly, and contending with Frozen II in its third weekend won’t be an easy task.
Opening Weekend Ranges
- Doctor Sleep ($20 – 30 million)
- Last Christmas ($12 – 17 million)
- Midway ($10 – 15 million)
- Playing with Fire ($7 – 12 million)
8-Week Forecast
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 9/20/2019 | Ad Astra | $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 | $18,000,000 | $58,500,000 | 3,400 | Fox | ||
| 9/20/2019 | Downton Abbey | $18,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $22,500,000 | 25% | $50,000,000 | 25% | 3,050 | Universal |
| 9/20/2019 | Rambo: Last Blood | $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 | $22,000,000 | $53,000,000 | 3,300 | Lionsgate | ||
| 9/27/2019 | Abominable | $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 | $22,500,000 | $80,000,000 | 4,000 | Universal | ||
| 10/4/2019 | Joker | $85,000,000 – $105,000,000 | $103,000,000 | $210,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 10/11/2019 | The Addams Family (2019) | $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 | $18,000,000 | $70,000,000 | United Artists Releasing | |||
| 10/11/2019 | The Current War (Expansion) | n/a | n/a | n/a | 101 Studios | |||
| 10/11/2019 | Gemini Man | $25,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $27,000,000 | -4% | $85,000,000 | -6% | Paramount | |
| 10/11/2019 | Jexi | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $29,000,000 | Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One | |||
| 10/18/2019 | Maleficent: Mistress of Evil | $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $37,000,000 | $110,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 10/18/2019 | Zombieland 2: Double Tap | $24,000,000 – $34,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $77,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 10/25/2019 | Black and Blue | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $35,000,000 | Sony / Screen Gems | |||
| 10/25/2019 | Countdown | n/a | n/a | n/a | STX | |||
| 10/25/2019 | The Last Full Measure | n/a | n/a | n/a | Roadside Attractions | |||
| 11/1/2019 | Arctic Dogs | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $24,500,000 | 11% | Entertainment Studios | ||
| 11/1/2019 | Harriet | n/a | n/a | n/a | Focus Features | |||
| 11/1/2019 | Motherless Brooklyn | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | n/a | n/a | Warner Bros. | |||
| 11/1/2019 | Terminator: Dark Fate | $35,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $38,000,000 | $85,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 11/8/2019 | Doctor Sleep | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $25,000,000 | NEW | $92,000,000 | NEW | Warner Bros. | |
| 11/8/2019 | Last Christmas | $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 | $15,000,000 | NEW | $80,000,000 | NEW | Universal | |
| 11/8/2019 | Midway | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $13,000,000 | NEW | $47,000,000 | NEW | Lionsgate | |
| 11/8/2019 | Playing with Fire | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $8,000,000 | NEW | $33,000,000 | NEW | Paramount |
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Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report
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