Long Range Forecast — August 23, 2024
The Crow | Lionsgate
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $6M-$10M
Lionsgate’s second August 2024 release, following the much-delayed video game adaptation Borderlands, in theaters two weeks earlier, hopes to revive the Crow franchise, which started as a comic book series before being adapted into a 1994 cult classic and three little-seen sequels, only one of which (1996’s The Crow: City of Angels) got a substantial theatrical release. During their 2024 CinemaCon presentation, Lionsgate execs emphasized that the new film is an adaptation of the original comic source material rather than a replacement for ’94’s The Crow, starring the late Brandon Lee. Getting the core fanbase of those comics excited about this new adaptation will be key to driving positive word-of-mouth and potentially driving tracking upwards.
August has typically been something of a dumping ground when it comes to horror movies, with studios using the month to clear their slates of long-delayed titles before the horror fandom revs up during the September/October run-up to Halloween. Last year saw Universal release Dracula movie Last Voyage of the Demeter—which, like The Crow, faced years of delays before eventually making its way to the big screen—to a meager $6.5M before topping out at $13.6M. Other recent examples include Lionsgate’s Saw X (2023, $18.3M domestic opening) and Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark (2019, $20.9M domestic opening), Paramount’s Orphan: First Kill (2022; released day-and-date to $1.7M), Sony’s The Invitation (2022, $6.8M domestic opening), Screen Gems’ Don’t Breathe 2 (2021, $10.6M opening), and Universal’s Candyman (2021, $22M domestic opening).
Looking outside the horror genre to sequels in general, Lionsgate launched The Expandables 4 (2023) to $8M and the Conan the Barbarian legacy sequel (2011) to $10M, both in mid-to-late August. And, as a fellow long-delayed adaptation of a much-loved genre property, the Borderlands remake will be instructive when it hits theaters on August 9.
Critical reception will help determine whether The Crow will manage to surpass the $10M mark on opening weekend. The Crow is very likely to end up in the middle of the pack when stacked up against lead Bill Skarsgård’s other 2024 releases: April’s Boy Kills World, released by Roadside Attractions in just shy of 2,000 theaters to $1.6M, and Robert Eggers’ highly anticipated Nosferatu, out from Focus Features on Christmas with Skarsgård as the villainous Count Orlok.
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