Long Range Forecast — August 30, 2024
Afraid | Sony
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $7M-$12M
Closing out the last month of summer 2024 is Sony release Afraid, a Columbia Pictures and Blumhouse Studios production following the trend of Blumhouse’s M3GAN in depicting killer AI: a doll in M3GAN and a home assistant of the Siri/Alexa ilk in Afraid. M3GAN was a surprise hit when it came out in January 2022 from Universal. It kicked off a year of high-performing horror movies, culminating with the $80M opening of Five Nights at Freddy’s (also Blumhouse) in late October.
Horror films have been far less successful in 2024. Night Swim, which came out on January 5 (compared to M3GAN‘s January 6), earned slightly more than M3GAN‘s $30.4M opening weekend domestic gross in its entire domestic run ($32.4M)—and it was still the year’s highest horror performer for nearly half the year until it was passed by Lionsgate’s The Strangers: Chapter One in June. Though this summer has given us some unequivocal successes in the horror genre—Paramount’s A Quiet Place: Day One ($52.2M domestic opening, $135.2M domestic gross as of 8/1) and NEON’s Longlegs ($22.4M domestic opening, $60.9M domestic gross as of 8/1), to be specific—it’s also seen movies that have failed to break through to mainstream audiences, including A24’s MaXXXine ($6.7M domestic opening, $14.6M domestic gross as of 8/1), Warner Bros.’ The Watchers ($7M domestic opening, $19M domestic gross), and Vertical Entertainment’s The Exorcism ($2.4M domestic opening, $4.5M domestic gross).
Our forecasting panel puts Afraid more in the latter camp than the former. Marketing for the title has been scarce—though the placement of the trailer before Longlegs might help draw in the horror crowd–and the name of Afraid director Chris Weitz (About a Boy) doesn’t exactly cause horror fans’ ears to perk up, unlike Longlegs (Oz Perkins) and MaXXXine (Ti West). Look for domestic grosses on this one to be roughly in line with the March 2024 release Imaginary, which debuted at $9.2M and struggled to a $28M domestic finish. Even that may be optimistic; while Imaginary didn’t have much competition from other horror films, Afraid is sandwiched between earlier August releases Alien: Romulus and The Crow (even though The Crow isn’t expected to make much noise itself) and the typical glut of horror films hitting theaters in September, including The Front Room (A24, 9/6) and Speak No Evil (Universal, 9/13).
Tracking Updates [as of 8/1]
Tracking Updates [as of 7/10]
| Release Date | Title | Opening Weekend Range | Distributor |
| 8/9/24 | It Ends With Us | $35 – $55M | Sony |
| 8/9/24 | Borderlands | $10 – $20M | Lionsgate |
| 8/16/24 | Alien: Romulus | $35 – $55M | 20th Century Studios |
| 8/23/24 | The Crow | $6 – $10M | Lionsgate |
Boxoffice Pro is the world’s leading reference in box office forecasts and reports, reaching 98% of decision-makers in theatrical exhibition.
Our complete forecasting reports are updated weekly by our Boxoffice Forecasting Panel, which consists of industry professionals and leading executives representing exhibition, distribution, and premium large-format vendors. Full reports are available to all active National Association of Theatre Owners members and select industry clients.
To learn how to receive our complete forecasting solutions, please get in touch with sales@boxoffice.com.
For media inquiries, contact press@boxoffice.com.
Share this post