Our look into October and the early portion of 2019’s final quarter continues this week with two new additions to the long range forecast.
The Addams Family
Opening Weekend Range: $16 – 21 million
PROS:
- The franchise name could appeal to adults of multiple generations (thanks to the original 1960s TV series and the popular big-screen features in the early 1990s). With potentially solid appeal to their kids (and grandkids) — plus no major competition from animated releases until mid-November’s Frozen II — the compounded family interest and staying power could turn this into a solid autumn success.
- Proximity to Halloween season in particular should provide a boost in target audience interest, with initial comps including films like the two recent Goosebumps films and The House with a Clock In Its Walls. This could also appeal to fans of the Hotel Transylvania series.
CONS:
- Opening in Abominable‘s third weekend may be enough distance to prevent major overlap, but if that film generates strong word of mouth, there could still be moderate crossover for the kiddie audience.
- Likewise, opening one week before Maleficent: Mistress of Evil puts Addams in range of having to compete for some of the young female Disney crowd.
Gemini Man
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 30 million
PROS:
- Will Smith’s return to the industry forefront in this year’s blockbuster run by Aladdin is certainly a factor to keep in mind as his older fans may next be looking forward to something more akin to the actor’s adult-driven hits like I Am Legend and Enemy of the State. In the right role, and with the right product, he’s still capable of driving breakout films.
- Acclaimed filmmaker Ang Lee is promising a unique visual experience with the de-aged Smith facing off against himself. Although the 120FPS distribution isn’t expected to be wide enough to have significant impact on box office returns, premium theater runs could be healthy if reviews and word of mouth for the movie itself prove strong — which would also prove fruitful given a relative lack of adult-centric competition in late October.
CONS:
- Releasing one week after Joker will put this in an intriguing position. Should that DC pic win over adult moviegoers, Gemini could perform more in line with films like Blade Runner 2049, The Accountant, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, or (worst case scenario) Smith’s own Focus.
- Trailers have drawn online comparisons to Looper and other “man vs. self/clone” films, which could leave some of the target genre fan audience harder to win over with the feeling of a narrative they’ve seen before.
8-Week Forecast
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 8/21/2019 | Ready or Not | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Fox Searchlight | ||
| 8/23/2019 | Angel Has Fallen | $14,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $47,000,000 | -4% | 3,000 | Lionsgate | |
| 8/23/2019 | Overcomer | $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $5,500,000 | -15% | $19,000,000 | -21% | 1,700 | Sony / AFFIRM Films |
| 8/30/2019 | Las Píldoras De Mi Novio (My Boyfriend’s Meds) | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate | ||
| 9/6/2019 | It: Chapter Two | $115,000,000 – $155,000,000 | $138,000,000 | $310,000,000 | Warner Bros. / New Line | |||
| 9/13/2019 | The Goldfinch | $7,500,000 – $12,500,000 | $10,000,000 | $33,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 9/13/2019 | Hustlers | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $39,000,000 | STX | |||
| 9/20/2019 | Ad Astra | $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $65,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 9/20/2019 | Downton Abbey | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | n/a | n/a | Universal | |||
| 9/20/2019 | Rambo: Last Blood | $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 | $14,500,000 | $35,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 9/27/2019 | Abominable | $19,000,000 – $24,000,000 | $22,500,000 | $75,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 10/4/2019 | Joker | $70,000,000 – $95,000,000 | $81,000,000 | 5% | $180,000,000 | 3% | Warner Bros. | |
| 10/11/2019 | The Addams Family (2019) | $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 | $18,000,000 | NEW | $70,000,000 | NEW | United Artists Releasing | |
| 10/11/2019 | The Current War (Expansion) | n/a | n/a | n/a | 101 Studios | |||
| 10/11/2019 | Gemini Man | $25,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $28,000,000 | NEW | $90,000,000 | NEW | Paramount | |
| 10/11/2019 | Jexi | n/a | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One |
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Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report
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