Long Range Forecast: The Marvel Cinematic Universe Returns to Theaters with CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD

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Long Range Forecast — February 14, 2025

Captain America: Brave New World | Disney

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: 3-Day: $70M – $85M | 4-Day: $80 – 95M

Following a quasi-hiatus that saw only one film hit theaters in 2024—albeit one that would go on to become the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time—the MCU revs back up with the release of Captain America: Brave New World. The first of three MCU films coming to theaters in 2025, Brave New World centers on the Sam Wilson (Anthony Mackie) incarnation of Captain America as he untangles a conspiracy involving the President of the United States (Harrison Ford), who also happens to be the villainous Red Hulk. A strong ensemble cast (Giancarlo Esposito, Tim Blake Nelson, and Liv Tyler also feature) could bode well for a potentially strong Presidents Day weekend and late winter run—though that could prove to be an uphill battle, as a series of critical misses throughout 2022 and 2023 have dulled the MCU’s shine somewhat. A positive reception for Brave New World could go a long way towards convincing audiences that the MCU still has the narrative heft needed to sustain the franchise as it transitions to from Phase 5 (which ends with May’s Thunderbolts*) to Phase Six (beginning with July’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps) later this year.

To date, pre-sales data casts doubt on the likelihood a $100M opening weekend for Brave New World, though reviews could shift that momentum in a more positive direction over the extended 4-day holiday frane.

Among MCU titles, an opening in the $70M – $85M range predicted by our panel would put Brave New World in the company of 2021’s Eternals ($71.2M domestic opening, $164.8M domestic total), Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75.8M domestic opening, $224.5M domestic total), and Black Widow ($80.3M domestic opening, $183.6M domestic total); 2019’s Ant-Man and the Wasp ($75.8M domestic opening, $216.6M domestic total); 2016’s Doctor Strange ($85M domestic opening, $232.6M domestic total); and 2013’s Thor: The Dark World ($85.7M domestic opening, $206.3M domestic total). Of those films, only two—Black Widow, which was released day-and-date, and Eternals—failed to crack $200M domestically, a fate shared by a handful of earlier MCU films (Thor, Ant-Man, Captain America: The First Avengers, The Incredible Hulk) and 2023’s The Marvels, the franchise low point in terms of box office with a $46.1M opening and a $84.5M domestic cume.

Timing should help Brave New World avoid the sub-$100M fate of Captain Marvel, which came out in November sandwiched between two comparatively more successful titles aimed at female audiences: Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour and The Hunger Games: The Ballads of Songbirds and Snakes. Brave New World‘s February release date offers little by way of competition; in the four weeks prior to its release, only one action/adventure title (Lionsgate’s Flight Risk) will have opened in wide release. A President’s Day release window served Marvel Studios reasonably well with 2023’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($106.1M domestic opening, $214.5M domestic total), though it’s another MCU title—2018’s Black Panther ($202M domestic opening, $700M domestic total)—that holds the box office record for that holiday.

Tracking Updates [as of January 24]