This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes the addition of two new wide releases scheduled to debut on Friday, November 3, officially kicking off the holiday movie season. Our early analyses and forecasts:
Thor: Ragnarok
Disney / Marvel Studios
PROS:
- The most obvious and well-publicized asset for this film will, of course, be the fact that Marvel Studios has become a franchise brand name unto itself with event-level appeal to virtually all ages.
- The promise of Mark Ruffalo’s Bruce Banner/Hulk joining Chris Hemsworth’s Thor for a feature film could give this sub-franchise sequel an added boost of intrigue. Although not featured in marketing (so far), the same can be said of Benedict Cumberbatch’s Doctor Strange, not to mention the casting of Cate Blanchett as the central villain and Jeff Goldblum’s Grandmaster character.
- Early marketing has employed a more musically-driven, playful tone in the vein of the Guardians of the Galaxy films, something that has been generally well received by fans and offers a different expectation than we’ve come to expect from Thor movies.
CONS:
- The previous Thor film, The Dark World, was a modest success by Marvel standards. Financially, the film certainly held its own, but it was generally regarded as one of the rare “filler” chapters of the overall MCU (as shown by its status as one of the most front-loaded Marvel movies to date). That could potentially lead to some minor audience fatigue as far as Thor-centric films go.
- Much like the case was in 2013 when Dark World faced stiff mid-November competition with The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Ragnarok will run into the widely anticipated release of Justice League during the former’s third weekend. Word of mouth for both films will be key to each one’s success as they aim for similar audiences.
- Although not necessarily a negative sign by any means, recent social media trends are more comparable to Doctor Strange than either of this year’s previous Marvel entries (Guardians Vol. 2 and Spider-Man: Homecoming).
A Bad Moms Christmas
STXfilms
PROS:
- The first film was a runaway sleeper hit during summer 2016, earning over $113 million domestically from a $23.8 million opening.
- The counter-programming potential is generally strong on opening weekend, particularly among “moms’ night out” audiences. Similarly, the holiday theme of the film is purposefully and obviously tied to the shift toward a holiday season release.
CONS:
- Although it should only be a minor effect, the female-driven comedic sequel will still have to contend with the fact that Thor: Ragnarok is led by one of Marvel’s more popular characters among women. This will then face another comedy sequel in its second weekend with Daddy’s Home 2 slated to open on November 10.
- On the whole, comedy sequels have been very hit-and-miss at the box office in recent years, with examples like Horrible Bosses 2, Ted 2, and others proving to perform well below the standards set by their predecessors.
This Week’s Changes & Other Notes
- mother! has shown encouraging signs of social media activity since marketing kicked in a few weeks ago. That said, we remain concerned about its release proximity to IT, which is likely to still post a strong second weekend.
- Likewise, the Flatliners remake has shown improving signs on social media of late. The film’s latest trailer this week could spur additional interest from teen moviegoers.
The Long Range Forecast:
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Location Count | Distributor |
| 9/15/2017 | American Assassin | $14,500,000 | $40,000,000 | 3,000 | Lionsgate | ||
| 9/15/2017 | mother! | $11,200,000 | 7% | $38,400,000 | 7% | 2,800 | Paramount |
| 9/22/2017 | Friend Request | n/a | n/a | n/a | Entertainment Studios | ||
| 9/22/2017 | Kingsman: The Golden Circle | $42,000,000 | $107,700,000 | 3,500 | Fox | ||
| 9/22/2017 | The LEGO Ninjago Movie | $42,500,000 | $146,600,000 | 4,000 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 9/29/2017 | American Made | $15,000,000 | $50,500,000 | Universal | |||
| 9/29/2017 | Flatliners (2017) | $12,000,000 | 20% | $29,000,000 | 12% | Sony / Screen Gems | |
| 9/29/2017 | A Question of Faith | n/a | n/a | Pure Flix | |||
| 10/6/2017 | Blade Runner 2049 | $44,000,000 | $115,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 10/6/2017 | The Mountain Between Us | $8,000,000 | $25,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 10/6/2017 | My Little Pony (2017) | $7,500,000 | $21,500,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 10/13/2017 | The Foreigner | $10,000,000 | $27,700,000 | STXfilms | |||
| 10/13/2017 | Happy Death Day | $20,000,000 | $40,000,000 | Universal / Blumhouse | |||
| 10/13/2017 | Marshall | $12,000,000 | $39,000,000 | Open Road | |||
| 10/20/2017 | Geostorm | $12,000,000 | $27,800,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 10/20/2017 | Only the Brave | $16,000,000 | $55,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 10/20/2017 | Same Kind of Different As Me | $4,500,000 | $12,000,000 | Pure Flix | |||
| 10/20/2017 | The Snowman | $11,000,000 | $31,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 10/20/2017 | Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween | $23,500,000 | $59,300,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 10/27/2017 | All I See Is You | n/a | n/a | Open Road | |||
| 10/27/2017 | Jigsaw | $10,000,000 | $21,600,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 10/27/2017 | Suburbicon | $14,000,000 | $45,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 10/27/2017 | Thank You for Your Service | $5,000,000 | $17,500,000 | Universal | |||
| 11/3/2017 | A Bad Moms Christmas | $30,000,000 | NEW | $85,000,000 | NEW | STXfilms | |
| 11/3/2017 | Thor: Ragnarok | $100,000,000 | NEW | $250,000,000 | NEW | Disney |
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
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