Long Range Forecast: ‘Transformers: The Last Knight’

This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes the addition of June 23’s Transformers: The Last Knight, the fifth film in the live action franchise celebrating its ten-year anniversary this summer. As he did with the previous four entries, Michael Bay returns as director. Our initial analysis and forecasts:

Transformers: The Last Knight
Paramount

PROS:

• The Transformers brand remains hugely popular both in North America and around the world. Regardless of how it performs in the States, this should once again mark a bright financial spot on Paramount’s bottom line when global box office is taken into account.
• Excluding The Mummy, this stands as one of June’s few summer tentpole options aimed squarely at the male audience. Adult fans and teenage boys alike should once again drive the bulk of business.
• Twitter activity has been quite respectable, especially in terms of sentiment which registers more positive than it did for Age of Extinction at the same point before release (driven by encouraging trailers thus far).
• The return of Mark Wahlberg ensures the franchise still has some star power to help it out. Fans may also be intrigued by the addition of Anthony Hopkins, who features prominently in the trailers.
• For another fan-specific interest: this marks the beginning of the next “era” of the franchise as it’s the first installment to come out of the writers’ room established by the studio to map out where future editions will go.

CONS:

• As with most series five films deep into their run, some continued diminished returns are expected here. The previous two films each declined from the series’ domestic box office peak (2009’s Revenge of the Fallen with $402 million). With the previous entry specifically generating strong criticism even from the target audience, it’s highly likely this film continues that trend on opening weekend.
• Being sandwiched in between Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3 could potentially (if not likely) cut into young male viewership.
• With Spider-Man: Homecoming, War for the Planet of the Apes, and Dunkirk all looming in July, the older male crowd is going to be a tough sell on this sequel.
• While the franchise remains a pillar among franchises with over 32 million Facebook fans as of this writing, its day-to-day growth is not currently as healthy as it was at the same point before Extinction‘s release. Flixster is also a source of concern relative to past franchise standards.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 continues to track for a huge debut next week. While we aren’t updating our forecast for the film just yet, positive reviews and strong social media buzz continue to line up with comparative metrics supporting a likely domestic opening within the $140-160 million range.
• First traditional tracking and social media buzz have improved our outlook for Alien: Covenant. Positive reviews will still be important to its success, though.
• Forecasts for Lowriders, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul, and Snatched have been lowered slightly as the films have yet to pick up significant momentum in both traditional and social media tracking.

Check out our complete 8-week forecast in the table below.

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.