Long Range Forecast: U.K. Smash Hit PADDINGTON IN PERU Heads to North American Cinemas

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Long Range Forecast — February 7, 2025

Paddington in Peru | Sony

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $15M – $20M

Following a record-breaking debut in the U.K. that saw it notch the biggest opening for a British-produced film in 2024, Paddington in Peru is heading to North America. Its February 7 release date—changed from January 17, MLK Day weekend—makes it the second wide-release kids’ movie of the year, following Universal’s Dog Man, out the week before. The sustained critical and audience acclaim enjoyed by the first two Paddington films should help the threequel fend off competition and secure its spot as a solid family performer through late March/early April, when family titles Disney’s Snow White (March 21) and Minecraft (April 4) help kick off a busy Q2.

Both of the previous Paddington films opened in the domestic market over MLK Day weekend, the first to $18.9M in 2014 and the second to $11M in 2018. Both films enjoyed positive word-of-mouth and strong holds, though the first Paddington stayed in theaters until mid-June whereas Paddington 2 was out by early March, giving it 9 weekends in cinemas to its predecessor’s 22, 14 of them theatrically exclusive. Our forecasting panel puts Paddington in Peru closer to the first Paddington with a projected opening in the mid to high teens, though how many screens it’s able to hold onto as the summer movie season ramps up will go a long way towards determining whether its domestic total more resembles Paddington‘s $76.2M or Paddington 2’s $40.8M.

Critical consensus could be a dampening factor for Paddington in Peru, which has the lowest Metacritic rating of the trilogy by a wide margin (Paddington: 77; Paddington 2: 88; Paddington in Peru: 60). Notably, Paddington in Peru is the first of the Paddington films not to be directed by Paul King, with first-time feature director Dougal Wilson stepping in… though it’s iffy as to how much a change of director will reasonably have on pre-sales for a family-targeted film such as this one. It certainly didn’t hurt in the U.K., where Paddington in Peru had the highest opening of the trilogy by $4M-plus.

Outside the Paddington franchise, the most fitting comp is 2018’s Peter Rabbit ($25M domestic opening, $115.2M domestic total), also a live action/CGI hybrid released by Sony at the beginning of February—four weekends after Paddington 2, in fact. Other family titles that had their domestic theatrical debut in the first half of February include:

• 2020’s Sonic the Hedgehog – $58M domestic opening; $148.9M domestic total (run shortened by the pandemic)
• 2019’s The Lego Movie: The Second Part – $34.1M domestic opening, $105.8M domestic total
• 2017’s The Lego Batman Movie – $53M domestic opening, $175.7M domestic total
• 2015’s The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water – $55.3M domestic opening, $162.9 domestic total
• 2014’s The Lego Movie – $69M domestic opening, $257.7M domestic total

Tracking Updates [as of January 17]