This week’s report continues our look into October’s very promising release slate with three more wide releases scheduled for Friday the 12th.
Bad Times at the El Royale
Opening Weekend Range: $11 – 17 million
There’s a lot to be encouraged about considering the strong ensemble cast led by Chris Hemsworth, Jon Hamm, Dakota Johnson, and Jeff Bridges, plus a screenplay from director Drew Goddard (The Cabin in the Woods helmer, The Martian writer). In the vein of his own new classic Cabin and last year’s Murder on the Orient Express, this could prove to be a leggy, adult-aimed thriller with room to play into November if reception is strong. Our somewhat conservative projections at this time are driven by modest social media growth, although that could pick up once marketing hits full throttle.
First Man
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million
Ryan Gosling and Claire Foy headline this biopic about Neil Armstrong from acclaimed filmmaker Damien Chazelle (La La Land, Whiplash), providing a lot of rising star power in front of and behind the camera to draw early award season speculation. As one of the greatest accomplishments in human history, the true story of Armstrong’s life leading up to the first moon-landing could prove to be universally appealing in a number of ways.
Strong trailers and a planned run in IMAX and PLF theaters add a bit of a boost to current box office prospects, with early comps including the likes of Moneyball, Argo, Captain Phillips, and Sully. If early screening reactions exceed expectations, look for forecasts to increase as release approaches.
Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 17 million
Although the first film was a solid $80 million domestic hit three autumns ago, the absence of star Jack Black could have some noticeable impact on the sequel’s returns in comparison. Still, this is a kid-friendly, holiday-timed option that may find success in the long run with what should be a more modest budget and only the third weekend of Smallfoot providing direct competition until early November.
8-Week Tracking
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 8/24/2018 | A.X.L. | $1,750,000 | $4,400,000 | n/a | Global Road | ||
| 8/24/2018 | The Happytime Murders | $14,000,000 | -10% | $36,600,000 | -10% | 3,000 | STX |
| 8/29/2018 | Operation Finale | $6,000,000 | $19,000,000 | 2,300 | MGM | ||
| 8/31/2018 | Kin | $5,000,000 | -9% | $12,600,000 | -9% | 1,500 | Lionsgate / Summit |
| 8/31/2018 | Searching | n/a | n/a | n/a | Sony / Screen Gems | ||
| 8/31/2018 | Ya Veremos | n/a | n/a | 350 | Pantelion | ||
| 9/7/2018 | God Bless the Broken Road | $1,500,000 | NEW | $3,750,000 | NEW | Freestyle Releasing | |
| 9/7/2018 | The Nun | $39,000,000 | -3% | $93,000,000 | -3% | Warner Bros. / New Line | |
| 9/7/2018 | Peppermint | $12,000,000 | $33,500,000 | STX Entertainment | |||
| 9/14/2018 | The Predator (2018) | $28,000,000 | $65,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 9/14/2018 | A Simple Favor | $14,000,000 | $40,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 9/14/2018 | Unbroken: Path to Redemption | $2,000,000 | $4,900,000 | Pure Flix | |||
| 9/14/2018 | White Boy Rick | $7,500,000 | $24,000,000 | Sony / Studio 8 | |||
| 9/21/2018 | Fahrenheit 11/9 | n/a | n/a | Briarcliff | |||
| 9/21/2018 | The House with a Clock In Its Walls | $24,000,000 | $79,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 9/21/2018 | Life Itself | n/a | n/a | Amazon Studios | |||
| 9/28/2018 | Hell Fest | $9,500,000 | $22,000,000 | Lionsgate / CBS Films | |||
| 9/28/2018 | Little Women (2018) | n/a | n/a | Pure Flix | |||
| 9/28/2018 | Night School (2018) | $17,500,000 | $55,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 9/28/2018 | Smallfoot | $23,000,000 | $80,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 10/5/2018 | A Star Is Born | $30,000,000 | $140,000,000 | 20% | Warner Bros. | ||
| 10/5/2018 | Venom (2018) | $65,000,000 | 63% | $135,000,000 | 59% | Sony / Columbia | |
| 10/12/2018 | Bad Times at the El Royale | $13,000,000 | NEW | $40,000,000 | NEW | Fox | |
| 10/12/2018 | First Man | $20,000,000 | NEW | $90,000,000 | NEW | Universal | |
| 10/12/2018 | Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween | $14,000,000 | NEW | $45,000,000 | NEW | Sony / Columbia |
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