This week’s report features an early look at Thanksgiving weekend and how the frame’s three major releases are currently tracking.
Fun fact: Disney currently owns the top nine three-day Thanksgiving openings of all time. If Ralph Breaks the Internet meets early tracking projections, it would surpass Warner Bros.’ Four Christmases ($31.1 million) to give Disney complete ownership of the holiday’s top ten opening weekends (not accounting for inflation).
Creed 2
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 25 million
The film’s first teaser has generated solid buzz online since debuting nearly two months, while the most recent trailer released this week has stirred up positive conversation once again. While we’re expecting some diminished returns from 2015’s predecessor, the return of Michael B. Jordan and Sylvester Stallone in a natural sequel that again touches on the franchise’s nostalgic roots should play to this follow-up’s hopes of counter-programming against the holiday season’s tentpole films.
Ralph Breaks the Internet
3-Day Opening Weekend Range: $45 – 60 million
No one is betting against Disney these days, and their first sequel to a recent in-house animated hit is poised to deliver another significant holiday run. Early social media metrics are generally in line with those of films like Moana and Coco, suggesting a similar type of run is in store here. Competition with The Grinch will be a factor as parents and kids have plenty of options to choose from in November and December, but the brand name and goodwill of the first Ralph should help guarantee this will be one of the season’s top hits if reviews/word of mouth turn out strong again.
Robin Hood
Opening Weekend Range: $6 – 12 million
Taron Egerton’s rising fame from the Kingsman films and Eddie the Eagle — alongside co-star Jamie Foxx — will be key strengths here, but early sentiment scores for the latest iteration of the iconic character indicate marketing will have some challenges ahead of it. Following its first trailer, Boxoffice is tracking the film’s overall social media footprint behind King Arthur: Legend of the Sword at the same point in the pre-release window. The competitive November market around it adds additional concerns.
8-Week Tracking
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 10/5/2018 | A Star Is Born | $44,000,000 | $170,000,000 | 3,500 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 10/5/2018 | Venom (2018) | $65,000,000 | $135,000,000 | 4,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 10/12/2018 | Bad Times at the El Royale | $11,000,000 | -8% | $34,000,000 | -8% | 2,900 | Fox |
| 10/12/2018 | First Man | $20,000,000 | $100,000,000 | 3,600 | Universal | ||
| 10/12/2018 | Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween | $17,000,000 | $54,000,000 | 3,500 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 10/19/2018 | Halloween (2018) | $60,000,000 | $150,000,000 | 6% | Universal | ||
| 10/19/2018 | The Hate U Give (Wide) | n/a | n/a | Fox | |||
| 10/19/2018 | Serenity (2018) | n/a | n/a | Aviron | |||
| 10/26/2018 | Hunter Killer | $14,000,000 | $41,000,000 | Lionsgate / Summit | |||
| 10/26/2018 | Indivisible | n/a | n/a | Pure Flix | |||
| 10/26/2018 | Johnny English Strikes Again | $4,000,000 | $8,750,000 | Universal | |||
| 11/2/2018 | Bohemian Rhapsody | $35,000,000 | $125,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 11/2/2018 | Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool | $15,000,000 | $40,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 11/2/2018 | The Nutcracker and the Four Realms | $20,000,000 | $79,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 11/2/2018 | The List | n/a | n/a | Paramount | |||
| 11/2/2018 | Suspiria (Wide) | n/a | n/a | Amazon Studios | |||
| 11/9/2018 | The Girl in the Spider’s Web | $15,000,000 | $45,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 11/9/2018 | Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch | $79,000,000 | $305,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 11/9/2018 | Overlord | $14,000,000 | $42,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 11/16/2018 | Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald | $75,000,000 | $222,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 11/16/2018 | Instant Family | $18,000,000 | n/a | Paramount | |||
| 11/16/2018 | A Private War (Expansion) | n/a | n/a | Aviron | |||
| 11/16/2018 | Widows | $20,000,000 | $78,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 11/21/2018 | Creed 2 | $23,000,000 | NEW | $80,000,000 | NEW | MGM | |
| 11/21/2018 | The Front Runner (Wide Expansion) | n/a | n/a | Sony | |||
| 11/21/2018 | Ralph Breaks the Internet | $50,000,000 | NEW | $200,000,000 | NEW | Disney | |
| 11/21/2018 | Robin Hood | $9,500,000 | NEW | $26,000,000 | NEW | Lionsgate / Summit | |
| 11/21/2018 | Green Book | n/a | n/a | Universal |
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