This week’s report breaks down the third weekend of November, currently slated to see the continuation of J.K. Rowling’s Harry Potter prequel series. We also offer up tentative projections for two original films opening the same weekend.
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Opening Weekend Range: $70 – 80 million
Potterheads will undoubtedly unite again for this anticipated sequel to 2016’s first prequel/spin-off film, which earned a respectable $234 million domestically and $814 million globally. The returning and expanded cast — now including Jude Law as a young Dumbledore and Johnny Depp as the titular antagonist famous in Potter lore — could provide significant hooks to keep many casual fans interested.
This new series of films is probably best compared to The Hobbit trilogy, although we expect this entry to remain relatively flat with the 2016 chapter’s $74.4 million debut since Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them wasn’t met with the same level of familiarity and anticipation as the first Hobbit film.
Early social media trends are outpacing those of the first Beasts film, while our Trailer Impact‘s long view metrics are very encouraging with an 85 percent Positive Interest score among those surveyed — representing one of the best wide release PI scores since summer’s Ant-Man and the Wasp.
Instant Family
Opening Weekend Range: $14 – 24 million
The trailer has only begun to penetrate the market enough to gauge early interest levels, but Paramount’s recent announcement that the film is scoring highly in test screenings (comparing it to Wonder and The Blind Side) is a factor in current projections. Stars Mark Wahlberg (Daddy’s Home) and Rose Byrne (Neighbors), plus the film’s family-centric premise, could be strong draws over the holiday season.
Widows
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million
Steve McQueen’s directorial follow-up to 13 Years a Slave promises a popcorn premise driven by a strong social message, a recipe which trailer reactions suggest could play very well.
The strong ensemble cast led by Viola Davis, Michelle Rodriguez, Elizabeth Debicki, Daniel Kaluuya, Colin Farrell, and Liam Neeson should entice adult audiences looking for more serious fare during the holiday corridor — an expectation backed up by excellent early reviews. If any award season buzz brews after release, staying power could have even more upside than we’re already expecting based on current trends.
8-Week Tracking
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 9/28/2018 | Hell Fest | $6,000,000 | -25% | $14,000,000 | -24% | 2,200 | Lionsgate / CBS Films |
| 9/28/2018 | Little Women (2018) | n/a | n/a | n/a | Pinnacle Peak | ||
| 9/28/2018 | Night School (2018) | $25,000,000 | $78,000,000 | 2,800 | Universal | ||
| 9/28/2018 | Smallfoot | $22,000,000 | $76,500,000 | 4,000 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 10/5/2018 | A Star Is Born | $44,000,000 | $170,000,000 | 13% | 3,700 | Warner Bros. | |
| 10/5/2018 | Venom (2018) | $65,000,000 | $135,000,000 | 4,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 10/12/2018 | Bad Times at the El Royale | $12,000,000 | -8% | $37,000,000 | -8% | Fox | |
| 10/12/2018 | First Man | $20,000,000 | -9% | $100,000,000 | -5% | Universal | |
| 10/12/2018 | Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween | $17,000,000 | 21% | $54,000,000 | 20% | Sony / Columbia | |
| 10/19/2018 | Halloween (2018) | $60,000,000 | $142,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 10/19/2018 | The Hate U Give (Wide) | n/a | n/a | Fox | |||
| 10/19/2018 | Serenity (2018) | n/a | n/a | Aviron | |||
| 10/26/2018 | Hunter Killer | $14,000,000 | $41,000,000 | Lionsgate / Summit | |||
| 10/26/2018 | Indivisible | n/a | n/a | Pure Flix | |||
| 10/26/2018 | Johnny English Strikes Again | $4,000,000 | $8,750,000 | Universal | |||
| 11/2/2018 | Bohemian Rhapsody | $35,000,000 | $125,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 11/2/2018 | Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool | $15,000,000 | $40,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 11/2/2018 | The Nutcracker and the Four Realms | $20,000,000 | $79,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 11/2/2018 | The List | n/a | n/a | Paramount | |||
| 11/2/2018 | Suspiria (Wide) | n/a | n/a | Amazon Studios | |||
| 11/9/2018 | The Girl in the Spider’s Web | $15,000,000 | $45,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 11/9/2018 | Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch | $79,000,000 | $305,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 11/9/2018 | Overlord | $14,000,000 | $42,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 11/16/2018 | Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald | $75,000,000 | NEW | $222,000,000 | NEW | Warner Bros. | |
| 11/16/2018 | Instant Family | $18,000,000 | NEW | n/a | NEW | Paramount | |
| 11/16/2018 | A Private War (Expansion) | n/a | n/a | Aviron | |||
| 11/16/2018 | Widows | $20,000,000 | NEW | $78,000,000 | NEW | Fox |
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