This week’s report takes a look at a trio of releases slated to open on Valentine’s Day, which lands on Friday in 2020 and kicks off the four-day Presidents Day weekend.
Fantasy Island
Opening Weekend Range: $17 – 22 million
PROS:
- The Blumhouse brand is generally reliable thanks to their library of successes in the horror and thriller genres, particularly with young adults.
- Releasing timing is strong with opening day likely to attract date night crowds on Valentine’s.
- Michael Peña’s presence could build additional appeal to adults who may be familiar with the original television this film is loosely based upon.
CONS:
- There is a considerable glut of horror/thriller genre films opening in early 2020, which could diminish demand for this one — especially given The Invisible Man‘s solid trailer buzz thus far, which opens just two weeks later.
The Photograph
Opening Weekend Range: $13 – 18 million
PROS:
- Producer Will Packer’s resume is enough to have some confidence in this title, particularly given the obvious appeal to sentimental date night audiences on Valentine’s weekend.
CONS:
- Reviews and word of mouth will be key to avoid a front-loaded run resulting from the Valentine’s boost.
Sonic the Hedgehog
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 30 million
PROS:
- Older fans of the iconic video game franchise may turn out, particularly parents who will want to introduce the series to the current generation of young ones.
- Social media metrics have been increasingly positive as sentiment has improved in recent months thanks to the studio’s decision to “correct” Sonic’s design after online outcry earlier this year.
- The holiday weekend should be conducive to strong family play, and getting a three-week jump on Pixar’s Onward provides fair breathing room.
CONS:
- In general, video game adaptations have quite a sorted history at the box office. It remains to be seen whether or not word of mouth and reviews can carry this in the way they did for Detective Pikachu.
Upcoming Location Count Estimates
- Little Women (3,100 on December 25)
- Spies in Disguise (3,300 on December 25)
- Uncut Gems (2,500 wide expansion on December 25)
- The Grudge (2,500 on January 3)
8-Week Tracking & Forecasts
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Range | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 12/25/2019 | Little Women (2019) | $17,000,000 – $27,000,000 | $23,000,000 | $90,000,000 – $130,000,000 | $115,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 12/25/2019 | Spies in Disguise | $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 | $13,000,000 | -19% | $50,000,000 – $75,000,000 | $61,000,000 | -19% | Fox / Blue Sky |
| 12/25/2019 | Uncut Gems (Wide) | $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $5,000,000 | n/a | A24 | |||
| 1/3/2020 | The Grudge (2020) | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $11,000,000 | -21% | $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $25,000,000 | -22% | Sony / Columbia |
| 1/10/2020 | 1917 (Wide) | $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 | $24,000,000 | $75,000,000 – $100,000,000 | $94,000,000 | Universal / DreamWorks | ||
| 1/10/2020 | Just Mercy (Wide) | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 | $59,000,000 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 1/10/2020 | Like a Boss | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $45,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $51,000,000 | Paramount | ||
| 1/10/2020 | Underwater | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $6,500,000 | $12,000,000 – $25,000,000 | $18,000,000 | Fox | ||
| 1/17/2020 | Bad Boys for Life | $21,000,000 – $31,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $55,000,000 – $75,000,000 | $64,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 1/17/2020 | Dolittle | $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $40,000,000 | $120,000,000 – $170,000,000 | $145,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 1/24/2020 | The Gentlemen | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $38,000,000 | STX | ||
| 1/24/2020 | The Last Full Measure | n/a | n/a | Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 1/24/2020 | Run | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate / Summit | ||||
| 1/24/2020 | The Turning | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $38,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 1/31/2020 | Gretel and Hansel | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $5,500,000 | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $11,000,000 | United Artists Releasing | ||
| 1/31/2020 | The Rhythm Section | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $38,000,000 | Paramount | ||
| 2/7/2020 | Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $49,000,000 | $100,000,000 – $150,000,000 | $125,000,000 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 2/14/2020 | Fantasy Island | $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $17,000,000 | NEW | $44,000,000 – $57,000,000 | $44,000,000 | NEW | Sony / Columbia |
| 2/14/2020 | The Photograph | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $15,000,000 | NEW | $30,000,000 – $42,000,000 | $35,000,000 | NEW | Universal |
| 2/14/2020 | Sonic the Hedgehog | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $26,000,000 | NEW | $65,000,000 – $100,000,000 | $86,000,000 | NEW | Paramount |
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Alex Edghill contributed to this report
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