This week’s report glimpses at the end of January and the beginnings of February, which is a big day for sports fans in America as the Super Bowl takes place on Sunday, February 2.
Two new releases will hit cinemas that weekend in hopes of counter-programming the big game. First up, Gretel and Hansel revisits the classic folk tale from The Brothers Grimm and features Sophia Lillis, one of the breakout stars from It.
Early buzz and social trends for the film are muted at this stage, although there is plenty of time for things to pick up as marketing kicks in after the holiday season. Appeal to teens and young adults will be strongest here, but we’re additionally concerned by the recent history of similar titles opening on Super Bowl weekend, leading to conservative forecasts at this time. Our current models identify closest with 2016’s Pride and Prejudice and Zombies.
Second up, The Rhythm Section will court adult viewers with stars Blake Lively and Jude Law leading the way. Based on Mark Burnell’s series of revenge-thriller novels, early trends suggest a fair opening weekend is possible thanks to what should be a mostly female-driven turnout. Again, though, the game will be deterrent for many moviegoers on Sunday.
Fans of Lively in particular should be drivers here after her successful turns in films like The Shallows, Age of Adaline, and A Simple Favor. Current forecasting models for Rhythm are in line with similar genre films like Cold Pursuit and Peppermint, while not far behind those of Red Sparrow and Atomic Blonde.
Next week, we’ll offer up our first public projections for Warner Bros. and DC’s anticipated Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn, slated to open Friday, February 7.
8-Week Tracking and Forecasts
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Range | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 12/13/2019 | Black Christmas | $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $37,700,000 | Universal | ||
| 12/13/2019 | Jumanji: The Next Level | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $44,000,000 | -12% | $200,000,000 – $275,000,000 | $210,000,000 | -21% | Sony / Columbia |
| 12/13/2019 | Richard Jewell | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $60,000,000 – $80,000,000 | $80,000,000 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 12/20/2019 | Cats | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $60,000,000 – $120,000,000 | $69,000,000 | -8% | Universal | |
| 12/20/2019 | Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker | $185,000,000 – $225,000,000 | $200,000,000 | $550,000,000 – $750,000,000 | $680,000,000 | Disney / Lucasfilm | ||
| 12/20/2019 | Bombshell (Wide Expansion) | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $6,000,000 | 20% | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $40,000,000 | Lionsgate | |
| 12/25/2019 | Little Women (2019) | $16,000,000 – $26,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $80,000,000 – $120,000,000 | $100,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 12/25/2019 | Spies in Disguise | $13,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $70,000,000 – $110,000,000 | $80,000,000 | Fox / Blue Sky | ||
| 12/25/2019 | Uncut Gems (Wide) | n/a | n/a | A24 | ||||
| 1/3/2020 | The Grudge (2020) | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $32,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 1/10/2020 | 1917 (Wide) | $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 | $23,000,000 | 10% | $75,000,000 – $100,000,000 | $90,000,000 | 10% | Universal / DreamWorks |
| 1/10/2020 | Just Mercy (Wide) | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 | $59,000,000 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 1/10/2020 | Like a Boss | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $45,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $51,000,000 | Paramount | ||
| 1/10/2020 | Underwater | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $6,500,000 | $12,000,000 – $25,000,000 | $18,000,000 | Fox | ||
| 1/17/2020 | Bad Boys for Life | $21,000,000 – $31,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $55,000,000 – $75,000,000 | $64,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 1/17/2020 | Dolittle | $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $40,000,000 | $120,000,000 – $170,000,000 | $145,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 1/24/2020 | The Gentlemen | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $38,000,000 | STX | ||
| 1/24/2020 | The Last Full Measure | n/a | n/a | Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 1/24/2020 | Run | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate / Summit | ||||
| 1/24/2020 | The Turning | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $38,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 1/31/2020 | Gretel and Hansel | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $5,500,000 | NEW | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $11,000,000 | NEW | United Artists Releasing |
| 1/31/2020 | The Rhythm Section | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | NEW | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $38,000,000 | NEW | Paramount |
Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice’s suite of forecasting and data services.
Alex Edghill contributed to this report
Share this post