Monday Update: While Sunday’s studio weekend estimates originally had The Beekeeper beating Mean Girls by $7.4M to $7.3M, Monday’s actuals revealed that Mean Girls actually won by $6.9M to $6.6M.
While both films came in below their original estimates, Mean ultimately led for the third consecutive frame, joining December’s Wonka and September’s The Nun II as the most recent films to accomplish the feat.
Sunday Update: With no new major wide releases for the second straight weekend, the top five films remained identical to last frame.
As a result, the total estimated $59.8M box office marks the lowest such frame in almost two years, since February 25-27, 2022. Uncharted led in its sophomore frame with $23.0M, but only one other film even earned above $6M.
Note: as of Sunday’s studio weekend estimates, The Beekeeper leads Mean Girls by only +1.6%. That margin is close enough that the two films could potentially switch places when Monday’s actuals are released.
#1 = The Beekeeper
In its third frame, MGM’s R-rated action thriller Beekeeper falls only -14% to $7.4M, rising to first place after only reaching runner-up status in its first two frames.
However, the film had taken first place at the daily box office this past Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday – making a first place finish at the weekend box office more possible.
Still, that marks the lowest first-place finisher since Top Gun: Maverick reclaimed the lead with $6.0M in September 2022 on Labor Day weekend.
(The lowest weekend leader of 2023 was last February’s Magic Mike’s Last Dance with $8.3M on Super Bowl weekend.)
The Beekeeper has earned $42.2M through its entire domestic run. Last Tuesday, it exceeded the $32.1M final total for last January’s biggest R-rated action thriller: Plane.
Beekeeper has also exceeded the final totals for several of Jason Statham’s comparable titles. Outside of major franchises like The Fast and the Furious, The Expendables, and The Meg, his movies have usually earned between $15M and $30M:
- 2011’s The Mechanic = $29.1M
- 2021’s Wrath of Man = $27.4M
- 2011’s Killer Elite = $25.1M
- 2016’s Mechanic: Resurrection = $21.2M
- 2013’s Homefront = $20.1M
- 2013’s Parker = $17.6M
- 2012’s Safe = $17.1M
#2 = Mean Girls
In its third frame, Paramount’s musical remake of 2004’s high school comedy declines -37% to $7.3M.
That -37% drop is significantly steeper than Beekeeper’s -12%, causing a perhaps-unexpected drop to second place. The musical Mean Girls has earned $60.8M through 17 days in North America.
Read Boxoffice PRO’s interview with Mean Girls co-directors Samantha Jayne and Arturo Perez Jr. here:
#3 = Wonka
In its seventh frame, Warner Bros.’ fantasy musical falls only -12% to $5.9M, repeating in third place.
Wonka has now earned $195.1M total through 45 days. Through the same point in release, that’s running only -1.2% below 2005’s non-musical Charlie and the Chocolate Factory = $197.5M.
While Wonka has been running behind Charlie through its entire run, debuting with an opening weekend -30% behind, it’s persistently closed the gap. Now it looks likely to overtake Charlie through the equivalent point in release later this week or next weekend.
The musical Wonka has also exceeded the final totals of several December family-friendly musicals:
- 2017’s The Greatest Showman = $174.3M
- 2018’s Mary Poppins Returns = $171.9M
- 2014’s Into the Woods = $128.0M
#4 = Migration
Now in its sixth frame, Universal’s Illumination animated title drops only -6% to $5.1M, repeating in fourth place.
It’s now earned $101.2M total, crossing the $100M mark on Sunday. That’s closing in on the final total of November’s animated Trolls Band Together with $102.0M, which it will surpass on a weekday later this week.
Depending on how well it holds, Migration could potentially surpass the final total of August’s animated Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem with $118.7M.
It looks almost certain not to match June’s Elemental with $154.4M, nor either of the biggest animated releases from each of the two prior Decembers: 2021’s Sing 2 with $162.7M or 2022’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish with $186.0M.
#5 = Anyone But You
Sony Pictures’ romantic comedy has held well, now spending its sixth frame in the box office top five. Few would have projected that outcome pre-release, particularly as the film only opened in fourth place.
In its sixth frame, it declines only -11% to $4.8M, repeating in fifth place.
It’s now earned $71.1M, exceeding the final totals of several major romantic comedies from the past five years:
- 2022’s Ticket to Paradise = $68.2M
- 2019’s What Men Want = $54.6M
- 2023’s No Hard Feelings = $50.4M
#6 = Fighter
Viva Entertainment’s Indian Hindi-language action thriller opens in sixth place with $3.5M.
That’s +19% higher Viva Entertainment’s prior best opening: 2022’s K.G.F: Chapter 2 with $2.9M.
Fighter starts below several comparable Indian film openings from the past year:
- -49% below January 2023’s Pathaan = $6.8M
- -46% below December 2023’s Animal = $6.5M
- -42% below September 2023’s Jawan = $6.1M
- -37% below December 2023’s Salaar: Cease Fire — Part 1 = $5.6M
- -14% below January’s Guntur Kaaram = $4.1M
Academy Awards nominations
Following last Tuesday’s Academy Awards nominations announcements, several top contenders expanded their screen count to capitalize on the renewed interest.
Searchlight Pictures’ Poor Things increases its screen count from 1,410 to a highest-yet 2,300.
Its box office reaches a highest-yet $3.0M, as it also reached a best-yet seventh place rank.
The film earned 11 nominations including for Best Picture, Best Director for Yorgos Lanthimos, Best Actress for Emma Stone, and Best Supporting Actor for Mark Ruffalo.
Amazon MGM’s American Fiction more than doubles its screen count from 850 theaters to a highest-yet 1,702.
Its box office rises +65% to a best-yet $2.8M, as it reaches the top 10 for the first time with a best-yet eighth place rank.
The film earned five nominations including for Best Picture, Best Actor for Jeffrey Wright, and Best Supporting Actor for Sterling K. Brown.
A24’s The Zone of Interest more than triples its screen count from 82 to a highest-yet 317.
Its box office more than doubles to $1.08M, cracking the million-dollar weekend mark for the first time.
The film earned five nominations including for Best Picture and Best Director for Jonathan Glazer.
Universal’s supposed frontrunner Oppenheimer nearly quintuples its screen count, from 254 to 1,262. That’s 33% of its peak: 3,761 in its August fourth frame.
Its $1.0M box office once again cracks the million-dollar mark, for the first time since its September 10th frame.
The film earned the most nominations with 13, including for Best Picture, Best Director for Christopher Nolan, Best Actor for Cillian Murphy, Best Supporting Actor for Robert Downey Jr., and Best Supporting Actress for Emily Blunt.
Focus Features’ The Holdovers multiplies its screen count by almost 10x, from 127 to 1,267. That’s 79% of its peak: 1,601 in its Thanksgiving fifth frame.
Its box office reaches $520K, the best since its December seventh frame. That’s also 16% of its peak: $3.2M on its November third frame.
The film earned five nominations including for Best Picture, Best Actor for Paul Giamatti, and Best Supporting Actress for De’Vine Joy Randolph.
Paramount’s and Apple Studios’ Killers of the Flower Moon surges its screen count from 16 to 941 theaters. That’s 24% of its peak: 3,786 in its November third frame.
Its box office reaches $220K, the best since its December seventh frame.
The film earned 10 nominations including Best Picture, Best Director for Martin Scorsese, Best Actress for Lily Gladstone, and Best Supporting Actor for Robert De Niro.
Neon’s Anatomy of a Fall increases its screen count from 25 to 380. That’s 65% of its peak: 583 in its November fifth frame.
Its box office rises to $211K, the best since its November fifth frame. That’s also 33% of its peak: $634K in its October third frame.
The film earned five nominations including for Best Picture, Best Director for Justine Triet, and Best Actress for Sandra Hüller.
Weekend comparisons
Total box office this weekend comes in around $59.8M.
That marks the lowest such frame in almost two years, since February 25-27, 2022. Uncharted led in its sophomore frame with $23.0M, but only one other film even earned above $6M.
Here’s how this weekend compares to last weekend, the same weekend last year, and the same weekend in the last pre-pandemic year of 2019:
|
Weekend |
Total |
This weekend is: |
Leader |
|
Last weekend |
$65.3M |
-8% |
Mean Girls [second frame] = $11.6M |
|
Same weekend in 2023 |
$72.4M |
-17% |
Avatar: The Way of Water [seventh frame] = $15.9M |
|
Same weekend in 2019 |
$103.5M |
-42% |
Glass [second frame] = $18.8M |
YTD comparisons
Year-to-date box office stands around $493.4M.
Here’s how that compares to last year and the last pre-pandemic year of 2019:
|
Year |
YTD total |
2024 YTD now: |
After last weekend: |
Trend |
|
2023 |
$520.3M |
-5.1% |
-9.6% |
Up |
|
2019 |
$778.1M |
-36.5% |
-36.2% |
Down |
Top distributors
Here are the current rankings of the “Big Five” distributors plus two others which have crossed the $20M mark.
This early on in the year, some mid-level distributors such as Amazon MGM Studios and A24 are actually above some of the “Big Five,” at least for now.
Grouped by parent company, the YTD leaders are:
-
- Warner Bros.: $119.6M
- Universal + Focus Features: $81.8M
- Amazon MGM Studios: $78.1M
- Paramount: $61.1M
- Sony Pictures + Sony Classics + Crunchyroll + Affirm: $54.0M
- Disney + 20th Century + Searchlight + Star: $21.0M
- A24: $20.4M
Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates:
| Title | Estimated weekend | % change | Locations | Location change | Average | Total | Weekend | Distributor |
| The Beekeeper | $7,421,382 | -14% | 3,337 | 7 | $2,224 | $42,288,291 | 3 | MGM [Amazon] |
| Mean Girls | $7,300,000 | -37% | 3,544 | -282 | $2,060 | $60,805,000 | 3 | Paramount |
| Wonka | $5,910,000 | -12% | 3,014 | -122 | $1,961 | $195,173,000 | 7 | Warner Bros. |
| Migration | $5,150,000 | -6% | 2,962 | -132 | $1,739 | $101,254,000 | 6 | Universal |
| Anyone But You | $4,800,000 | -11% | 2,885 | -43 | $1,664 | $71,196,000 | 6 | Sony Pictures |
| Fighter | $3,500,000 | 662 | $5,287 | $3,500,000 | 1 | Viva Entertainment | ||
| Poor Things | $3,048,000 | 43% | 2,300 | 890 | $1,325 | $24,792,797 | 8 | Searchlight [Disney] |
| American Fiction | $2,896,728 | 65% | 1,702 | 852 | $1,702 | $11,843,226 | 7 | MGM [Amazon] |
| Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | $2,820,000 | -23% | 2,118 | -305 | $1,331 | $118,102,000 | 6 | Warner Bros. |
| Godzilla Minus One | $2,600,000 | 276% | 2,051 | 1,516 | $1,268 | $55,009,000 | 9 | Toho International |
| The Boys in the Boat | $2,213,597 | -13% | 1,869 | -143 | $1,184 | $47,466,805 | 5 | MGM [Amazon] |
| Night Swim | $2,100,000 | -25% | 2,258 | -450 | $930 | $26,805,000 | 4 | Universal |
| Origin | $1,462,500 | 77% | 125 | $11,700 | $2,620,028 | 8 | Neon | |
| I.S.S. | $1,366,993 | -55% | 2,502 | -18 | $546 | $5,569,215 | 2 | Bleecker Street |
| The Iron Claw | $1,089,413 | -30% | 926 | -395 | $1,176 | $33,801,616 | 6 | A24 |
| The Zone of Interest | $1,084,336 | 142% | 317 | 235 | $3,421 | $3,003,787 | 7 | A24 |
| Oppenheimer | $1,000,000 | 284% | 1,262 | 1,008 | $792 | $328,159,000 | 28 | Universal |
| The Boy and the Heron | $660,932 | -22% | 610 | 30 | $1,083 | $44,237,878 | 8 | GKIDS |
| The Holdovers | $520,000 | 568% | 1,267 | 1,140 | $410 | $19,345,000 | 14 | Focus Features [Universal] |
| The Book of Clarence | $437,000 | -60% | 669 | -1,341 | $653 | $5,560,000 | 3 | Sony Pictures |
| The Color Purple | $430,000 | -42% | 503 | -278 | $855 | $60,004,000 | 5 | Warner Bros. |
| All of Us Strangers | $402,000 | -28% | 275 | -20 | $1,462 | $3,033,120 | 6 | Searchlight [Disney] |
| Miller’s Girl | $321,000 | 350 | $917 | $321,000 | 1 | Lionsgate | ||
| Trolls Band Together | $270,000 | -29% | 351 | -127 | $769 | $102,263,650 | 11 | Universal |
| The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes | $230,000 | -60% | 1,115 | $206 | $166,283,795 | 11 | Lionsgate | |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | $220,000 | 3811% | 941 | 925 | $234 | $67,605,000 | 15 | Paramount |
| Anatomy of a Fall | $211,500 | 440% | 25 | $8,460 | $4,194,869 | 16 | Neon | |
| Ferrari | $132,000 | -52% | 327 | $404 | $18,367,996 | 5 | Neon | |
| Wish | $122,000 | -23% | 155 | -30 | $787 | $63,525,149 | 10 | Walt Disney |
| Thanksgiving | $81,000 | 87943% | 511 | 508 | $159 | $31,904,599 | 11 | Sony Pictures |
| Sometimes I Think About Dying | $40,460 | 2 | $20,230 | $40,460 | 1 | Oscilloscope | ||
| The Sweet East | $23,069 | 403% | 3 | $7,690 | $163,115 | 9 | Utopia | |
| TÓTEM | $11,402 | 1 | $11,402 | $11,402 | 1 | Janus Films | ||
| American Star | $9,001 | 47 | $192 | $9,001 | 1 | IFC Films | ||
| Memory | $5,500 | -66% | 15 | -183 | $367 | $379,100 | 6 | Ketchup Entertainment |
| Radical | $4,825 | -30% | 15 | $322 | $8,701,644 | 13 | Pantelion Films |
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