Black Adam
Last weekend, Warner Bros. DC Comics adaptation Black Adam, starring Dwayne Johnson, opened to $67.0M. That was on the higher end of pre-release projections, which were in the $60M-$65M range.
Now in its second frame, it repeats on top with a -59% decline to $27.7M. That’s a slightly steeper drop than projections, which had it coming in around $29M-$30M.
Compared to other DC Comics film adaptations which opened in the same range, that’s a steeper sophomore weekend drop than:
- 2019’s Shazam! (-54%)
- 2018’s Aquaman (-23% on Christmas weekend, then -41% the weekend after that)
Compared to other comparable titles starring Johnson, it’s also steeper than:
- 2019’s Hobbs & Shaw (-58%)
- 2019’s Jumanji: The Next Level (-55%, on the frame Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opened)
- 2015’s San Andreas (-53%)
- 2017’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (-26%, after originally improving by +38% on the prior Christmas weekend)
- 2016’s Moana (-50%), to the extent that the animated title is a valid comparison
Compared to superhero titles from rival Marvel Studios which opened in the same range, it’s also steeper than 2021’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (-54%), though milder than 2021’s Eternals (-62%).
Adam also notched the #5 October weekend of all time. Compared to the four titles ahead of it, it dropped:
- Steeper than 2019’s Joker (-42%)
- Milder than 2021’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage (-65%)
- Steeper than 2018’s Venom (-56%)
- Equal to 2018’s Halloween (-59%)
Overseas, Adam has earned $139M in 77 markets, for a $250M global total. Top market totals include:
- U.K. ($15.3M)
- Mexico ($9.3M)
- Brazil ($8.4M)
- France ($8.2M)
- Australia ($7.8M)
Ticket to Paradise
Last weekend, Universal’s romantic comedy Ticket to Paradise, starring Julia Roberts and George Clooney, began with $16.5M. That was slightly above pre-release projections, which were around $12M-$14M.
In its second frame, it repeated in second place with a -39% drop to $10.0M, in line with projections.
Compared to other romantic comedies of the past decade which opened in that same $14M-$18M range, that sophomore weekend drop is milder than:
- 2019’s What Men Want (-41%)
- 2019’s Isn’t It Romantic (-50%)
- 2016’s How to Be Single (-54%)
- 2012’s Hope Springs (-38%)
- 2014’s Blended (-43%)
Although it’s not a genre analogue, Paradise also declined more mildly than Clooney’s and Roberts’ 2016 thriller Money Monster (-53%).
Compared to some other similar romantic comedies of the past decade, it also declined more mildly than:
- 2019’s Last Christmas (-43%)
- 2016’s Bridget Jones’s Baby (-46%)
- March’s The Lost City (-52%, although that was its steepest weekend drop for the next three months)
- 2012’s The Five-Year Engagement (-53%)
- February’s Marry Me (-53%, after opening day-and-date simultaneously in cinemas and streaming on Peacock)
After rolling out overseas for several weeks ahead of its domestic release, Ticket stands at a $85.6M overseas total from 78 markets, for a $119.3M global total. Top overseas market totals include:
- Australia ($10.1M)
- U.K. ($10.1M)
- Germany ($10.0M)
Prey for the Devil
The lone new wide release this weekend, Lionsgate’s horror Prey for the Devil began with $7.0M in third place, in line with pre-release projections.
Compared to other Halloween-timed horror releases from the past two months, that’s -33% below Barbarian ($10.5M) but +3% above August’s The Invitation ($6.8M).
Compared to other PG-13 horror titles in the traditionally R-rated genre, Prey also opened:
- +3% above August’s The Invitation ($6.8M)
- -20% below 2021’s Escape Room: Tournament of Champions ($8.8M)
- -20% below 2019’s Countdown ($8.8M)
- -24% below 2018’s Winchester ($9.3M)
- -34% below 2016’s The Boy ($10.7M)
Compared to other recent horror titles from Lionsgate specifically, Prey opened:
- -19% below 2021’s Spiral ($8.7M)
- -26% below 2016’s Blair Witch ($9.5M)
- -31% below 2015’s The Lazarus Effect ($10.2M)
Prey earned a C+ CinemaScore.
Smile
After Paramount’s horror Smile opened atop the box office with $22.6M, on the higher end of pre-release projections, it then fell only -18% to repeat in first place with $18.5M. That marked the mildest sophomore weekend drop of any major wide-release film of 2022 so far, horror or otherwise.
In its third weekend, it fell only -32% to $12.5M and second place, behind fellow horror release Halloween Ends. Yet the strong word of mouth for Smile, coupled with the poor word of mouth for Ends, reversed their fates and gave Smile the lead once again on its fourth weekend, declining only -33% to $8.4M.
Now in its fifth frame, with Halloween right around the corner, Smile once again defeats Ends. Smile declines -40% to $5.0M and fourth place. That actually is a bit steeper of a drop than predicted, with projections closer to -25% or -30% then -40%.
Through 31 days, Smile has now earned a $92.3M domestic total. Through the equivalent point in release, that’s:
- +17% ahead of June’s The Black Phone ($78.6M), despite opening -4% behind ($23.6M)
- +26% ahead of January’s Scream ($73.2M), despite opening -24% behind ($30.0M)
- +28% ahead of 2021’s The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It ($61.4M), despite opening -6% behind ($24.1M)
Overseas, Smile has now earned $93.6M overseas in 62 markets, for a $185.9M global total. Top overseas market totals include:
- U.K. ($11.5M)
- Germany ($9.7M)
- Mexico ($7.7M)
- France ($7.3M)
- Australia ($4.6M)
Halloween Ends
Two weekends ago, Universal’s horror sequel Halloween Ends debuted with $40.0M in first place, with a simultaneous day-and-date release in cinemas and on Peacock. That was below pre-release projections, which were around the $45M-$50M range.
In its second weekend, it dropped a steep -80% to $8.0M and fourth place. That’s the #7 steepest sophomore weekend percentage drop of all time for a film playing in 1,000+ theaters, behind only:
- 2017’s Collide (-88.5%)
- 2016’s Jane Got a Gun (83.5%)
- 2003’s Gigli (-81.9%)
- 2019’s Replicas (-81.5%)
- 1991’s Return to the Blue Lagoon (-80.8%)
- 2009’s Friday the 13th (-80.4%)
And among films playing in 2,500 theaters, it’s actually the single steepest sophomore weekend drop of all time. (Ends was playing in 3,901 theaters.)
Now in its third weekend, it falls -52% to $3.8M and fifth place.
Through 17 days, it’s earned a $60.3M domestic total. Through the equivalent point in release, that’s:
- -29% below 2021’s prior installment Halloween Kills ($85.8M), which also debuted day-and-date simultaneously in cinemas and on streaming
- -59% below 2018’s Halloween ($150.2M), which debuted with theatrical exclusivity
- -38% below this year’s biggest horror movie, July’s Nope ($97.9M)
- -44% below last year’s biggest horror movie, 2021’s A Quiet Place Part II ($109.3M)
- -15% below Smile ($71.3M), a result that few would have predicted pre-release
Overseas, Ends has earned $34.3M in 76 markets, for a $94.6M global total. Top overseas market totals include:
- U.K. ($4.9M)
- Mexico ($4.7M)
- Germany ($3.5M)
- France ($2.7M)
- Australia ($1.6M)
Till
United Artists Releasing’s and MGM’s historical drama Till expanded nationwide this weekend, earning $2.8 in seventh place. That’s below pre-release projections, which were around an (already fairly low) $4M.
This was the film’s third frame, after starting in limited release with 16 theaters, then expanding to 104, and now expanding nationwide to 2,058.
Compared to the wide release numbers for other comparable titles, that’s:
- -57% below 2013’s 12 Years a Slave ($6.6M)
- -68% below 2021 Aretha Franklin biopic Respect ($8.8M)
- -75% below 2015’s Martin Luther King, Jr. biopic Selma ($11.3M)
- -76% below 2019’s Harriet Tubman biopic Harriet ($11.6M)
It also comes in even further below the $20M+ openings of 2013’s Jackie Robinson biopic 42, 2017’s Hidden Figures, and 2013’s Lee Daniels’ The Butler.
However, Till has positive word of mouth which could give the film legs at the box office. Its CinemaScore is A+ and its Rotten Tomatoes score is 98%.
That’s far higher than some of the other films which beat it at the box office this weekend, including Black Adam (40%), Ticket to Paradise (56%), Prey for the Devil (20%), and Halloween Ends (41%).
The estimated audience was 58% female and 46% black, compared to only 38% white.
Terrifier 2
Three weekends ago, Cinedigm Entertainment Group’s and Bloody Disgusting’s under-the-radar horror film Terrifier 2 debuted with $805K.
Then in its second frame it actually improved +28%, despite falling from 886 to 700 theaters, earning a surprise top-10 finish in eighth place. And in its third frame, the film actually improved yet again by +70% to $1.7M, rising one spot to seventh place.
Now in its fourth frame, with Halloween right around the corner, it improves yet again by +2% to $1.8M, coming in eighth place.
TÁR
Focus Features’ classical music drama TÁR, starring Cate Blanchett, expanded nationwide to earn $1.0M and cracking the top 10 in tenth place.
This was the film’s fourth frame, after starting in limited release with four theaters, then 36, then 141, and now 1,087.
In its opening frame, it earned the #4 per-theater average of 2022 so far, with $158K in four theaters, for a $39,655 average.
Specialty box office
- Focus Features’ Armageddon Time opens in six theaters, earning $72K for a $12,000 average. That’s the #34 average of the year so far.
- Last weekend, Searchlight Pictures’ The Banshees of Inisherin opened in four theaters, earning $181K for a $45,250 per-theater average. That’s the #2 average of the year so far, behind only March’s Everything Everywhere All at Once ($50,131). This weekend it expands to 58 theaters, earning $540K for a $9,310 average. The film expands to an estimated 800+ theaters.
- Neon’s Triangle of Sadness, which won the Cannes Film Festival’s top prize called the Palme d’Or, expands from 280 to 610 theaters in its fourth frame, earning $549K for a $900 average.
Weekend comparisons
Total box office this weekend came in around $65.5M, which is:
- -42% below last weekend’s total ($113.6M), when Black Adam led with $67.0M.
- -31% below the equivalent weekend in 2021($95.9M), when Dune opened with $41.0M, debuting day-and-date simultaneously in cinemas and streaming on HBO Max.
- -39% below the equivalent weekend in the last pre-pandemic year 2019 ($107.5M), when Maleficent: Mistress of Evil led for a second consecutive frame with $19.3M.
Last weekend marked the first $100M+ overall weekend in 13 frames, since July 22-24 (with $126.2M) when Nope opened at $44.3M. This weekend, though, the box office once again falls well below $100M.
YTD comparisons
Year-to-date box office stands around $6.05B. That’s:
- 2.01x this same point in the pandemic recovery year of 2021 ($3.00B), down from 2.06x after last weekend.
- -34.1% behind this same point in 2019, the last pre-pandemic year ($9.04B), down from -33.7% last weekend. The peak was around -29.5%, set in mid-July.
Top distributors
- Universal ($1.37B)
- Paramount ($1.27B)
- Disney ($880.9M)
- Warner Bros. ($848.7M)
- Sony Pictures ($812.9M)
Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates:
| Title | Estimated weekend | % change | Locations | Location change | Average | Total | Weekend | Distributor |
| Black Adam | $27,700,000 | -59% | 4,402 | $6,293 | $111,138,667 | 2 | Warner Bros. | |
| Ticket to Paradise | $10,000,000 | -39% | 3,692 | 149 | $2,709 | $33,731,570 | 2 | Universal |
| Prey for the Devil | $7,025,000 | 2,980 | $2,357 | $7,025,000 | 1 | Lionsgate | ||
| Smile | $5,050,000 | -40% | 3,221 | -75 | $1,568 | $92,387,230 | 5 | Paramount |
| Halloween Ends | $3,830,000 | -52% | 3,419 | -482 | $1,120 | $60,323,710 | 3 | Universal |
| Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile | $2,825,000 | -34% | 3,135 | -401 | $901 | $32,560,233 | 4 | Sony Pictures |
| Till | $2,810,827 | 673% | 2,058 | 1,954 | $1,366 | $3,637,474 | 3 | United Artists |
| Terrifier 2 | $1,803,750 | 3% | 1,550 | 795 | $1,164 | $7,638,050 | 4 | Cinedigm Entertainment Group |
| The Woman King | $1,110,000 | -41% | 1,446 | -412 | $768 | $64,584,240 | 7 | Sony Pictures |
| TÁR | $1,020,000 | 104% | 1,087 | 946 | $938 | $2,487,823 | 4 | Focus Features |
| Triangle of Sadness | $549,000 | -9% | 610 | 330 | $900 | $2,281,216 | 4 | Neon |
| The Banshees of Inisherin | $540,000 | 193% | 58 | 54 | $9,310 | $790,760 | 2 | Searchlight Pictures |
| Don’t Worry Darling | $249,000 | -71% | 576 | -730 | $432 | $44,839,312 | 6 | Warner Bros. |
| Amsterdam | $209,000 | -75% | 535 | -1,215 | $391 | $14,571,784 | 4 | 20th Century Studios |
| The Bad Guys | $205,000 | 1,478 | $139 | $96,918,440 | 28 | Universal | ||
| Barbarian | $201,000 | -64% | 465 | -320 | $432 | $40,545,610 | 8 | 20th Century Studios |
| Top Gun: Maverick | $120,000 | -59% | 292 | -399 | $411 | $716,582,761 | 23 | Paramount |
| Minions: The Rise of Gru | $116,000 | -49% | 531 | -234 | $218 | $368,981,990 | 18 | Universal |
| Aftersun | $75,242 | 24% | 17 | 13 | $4,426 | $166,030 | 2 | A24 |
| Armageddon Time | $72,000 | 6 | $12,000 | $72,000 | 1 | Focus Features | ||
| Bros | $31,000 | -85% | 101 | -531 | $307 | $11,608,710 | 5 | Universal |
| See How They Run | $24,000 | -72% | 160 | -120 | $150 | $9,570,542 | 7 | Searchlight Pictures |
| Moonage Daydream | $20,000 | -51% | 52 | -34 | $385 | $4,200,310 | 7 | Neon |
| Cat Daddies | $8,000 | -18% | 4 | 1 | $2,000 | $37,135 | 3 | Gray Hat Productions |
| The Divine Protector – Master Salt Begins | $2,269 | -83% | 6 | -3 | $378 | $18,502 | 2 | Freestyle Releasing |
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