1. Captain America: Brave New World
Marvel Studios | Week 3
$15M Domestic Weekend | $163.7M Domestic Total
$341.8M Global Total
Some moderate good news for Marvel Studios this weekend as Captain America: Brave New World maintained its #1 status with a $15M estimate over the 3-Day in 3,800 locations for a $3,947 Per Screen Average. The movie shed -305 screens this frame while dropping -47% from Frame 2. That puts the Anthony Mackie-led action thriller at $163.7M domestic, still a hair’s breath from Eternals‘ $164.87M and within striking distance of Captain America: The First Avenger ($176.6M), Ant-Man ($180.2M), and Thor ($181M). It will be a broken-legged drag across the field to cross the $200M milestone, unless Disney renews the campaign in a big way.
While Cap was good news for theaters the last two weeks, the movie’s lack of momentum plus no major new tentpole releases means this one is going down in the books as the worst-performing overall box office frame of 2025 so far ($53.3M)… lower than Super Bowl weekend ($54.28M). The numbers are down -53% from Frame 9 last year when Dune: Part Two exploded at $114.67M. In fact, March of 2024 was stacked with a new tentpole nearly every week including Kung Fu Panda 4, Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, and Godzilla x Kong, while the only theatrical of that caliber in March 2025 is Snow White. The biggest budget tentpole of the month, Netflix and the Russo Bros.’ The Electric State, is not coming to theaters.
Here’s how the 3-Day looked on Brave New World…
- Friday – $3.6M
- Saturday – $7M
- Sunday – $4.4M
In addition to posting a better Frame 3 hold than recent MCU moneymakers Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (-48%) and Thor: Love and Thunder (-52%), Brave New World also surpassed all the “black sheep” Marvel films that are considered underperformers in relation to the studio’s overall track record across 35 theatrical films…
- The Marvels (2023) – $6.3M (-38% 3rd frame drop)
- The Incredible Hulk (2008) – $9.57M (-57% 3rd frame drop)
- Eternals (2021) – $11M (-59% 3rd frame drop)
- Black Widow (2021) – $11.6M (-55% 3rd frame drop)
- Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023) – $12.8M (60% 3rd frame drop)
- Captain America: The First Avenger (2011) – $13M (-49% 3rd frame drop)
- Captain America: Brave New World (2025) – $15M (-47% 3rd frame drop)
Overseas Brave New World continues to post slightly better numbers with $18.8M in all 52 material territories for a global total of $341.8M. That puts this movie’s Hulk as well as the studio still seeing red on this title, with maybe another two frames before it surpasses globals of The First Avenger ($370.56M) and Black Widow ($379.7M). Top 3 international markets are the UK ($19.8M), China ($14.2M), and Mexico ($13.1M). To compare, China alone was $180.79M for 2016’s Captain America: Civil War.
Clearly the Marvel stalwarts are still buying tickets, but as with The Marvels, many general audiences saw this one out despite Mackie’s decade+ standing in the series and the addition of Harrison Ford. Cap’s #1 stateside hold will likely be upended next weekend by the Robert Pattinson-led sci-fi satire Mickey 17, which is pegged to open in the $10M-$15M range according to our latest forecast.
2. Last Breath
Focus Features | NEW
$7.8M Domestic Opening Weekend
Focus Features’ real-life survival story Last Breath, based on the 2019 documentary, met the low-end of our expectations with an estimated $7.8M to open at #2 in 3,018 theaters for a $2,584 PSA. The movie earned 77% critical on Rotten Tomatoes, with a “B+” CinemaScore and 4 1/2 stars/61% definite recommend on PostTrak. It had been a while since a movie in the true life survival genre hit theaters before streaming, so it’s no surprise to see audiences hesitate to hit theaters for a product they’ve been steadily getting at home since before the pandemic.
The biggest markets were South Central, Mountain, and West, with the AMC Burbank nabbing the biggest single theater take at $16K. Audiences were split fairly evenly at 51% male/49% female, with a reported 53% of ticket buyers in the age 35+ bracket. Here’s how demographics looked…
- 51% White
- 23% Latino
- 10% Black
- 7% Asian
- 9% Native American/Other
Headliner Woody Harrelson has had success in recent years as a supporting player in big franchises (Hunger Games, Planet of the Apes, Star Wars, Venom, etc), but lead roles in smaller films like Champions ($16.39M) and Wilson ($653.95K) didn’t pop. The international success of 2021’s Shang-Chi should have made co-star Simu Liu a household name, but its only led to supporting parts in films like this, Arthur the King, and Barbie. In other words, star power was not Last Breath‘s strong suit either.
Other Notable Performances
Warner Bros’ big gamble on Mickey 17 is already paying off with a #1 opening in Korea this weekend. The sci-fi film by South Korean Oscar-winner Bong Joon-ho (Parasite) took 70% of the market share over the Independence Day Movement holiday with an estimated 4-Day total of 12.9B Won ($9M) from 2,133 screens (9.8B Won/$7M USD over the 3-Day). This marks star Robert Pattinson’s biggest opening in the region, ahead of The Batman. Mickey 17 will debut in 66 markets next frame including the U.S., China, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Australia, and all of Latin America.
Neon’s The Monkey dropped -55% in its second frame to take #3 with $6.37M despite adding 27 screens for a PSA of $1,976. That’s on the lower end of our panel’s forecast, and a perplexing lack of hold for a title that looked like a knockout a few weeks ago. Domestic total is $24.6M, compared to Osgood Perkins’ Longlegs which had $44.9M by Frame 2 last year. With 10 major releases in 2025, the median gross for horror films this year has been around $12M. The top new 2025 release in the genre is Heart Eyes at $27.9M.
Proving the old Hollywood adage that “if you have a name in your title with 6 u’s, you’re in trouble,” GKIDS release of Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX -Beginning- brought in a scant $916,664 on 784 screens. The prelude to a new anime TV series which already opened at #1 in Japan, this was GKIDS’ first crack at the Gundam brand in America. Last year’s Mobile Suit Gundam SEED Freedom grossed $35.4M WW.
While exact official figures are still pending, the Chinese megablockbuster animated film Ne Zha 2 is expected to cross the $2B mark this weekend, potentially knocking 2018’s Avengers: Infinity War ($2.048B) and 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($2.056B) to the side. The film only took $1.7M in North America this weekend for a $17.9M market total.
Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates
Weekend 9 – 2025
Total 3-Day Domestic Estimates:
$53,335,037M | (-53.5% vs 2024)
| Title | Weekend Estimate | % Change | Locations | Location Change | PSA | Domestic Total | Week | Distributor |
| Captain America: Brave New World | $15,000,000 | -47% | 3,800 | -305 | $3,947 | $163,696,598 | 3 | Walt Disney |
| Last Breath | $7,800,000 | 3,018 | $2,584 | $7,800,000 | 1 | Focus Features | ||
| The Monkey | $6,376,000 | -55% | 3,227 | 27 | $1,976 | $24,617,349 | 2 | Neon |
| Paddington in Peru | $4,500,000 | -31% | 3,705 | -185 | $1,215 | $31,359,000 | 3 | Sony Pictures |
| Dog Man | $4,200,000 | -28% | 3,055 | -124 | $1,375 | $84,060,000 | 5 | Universal |
| Mufasa: The Lion King | $1,900,000 | -25% | 1,705 | -220 | $1,114 | $247,996,607 | 11 | Walt Disney |
| Ne Zha 2 | $1,710,000 | -44% | 600 | -200 | $2,850 | $17,910,000 | 3 | CMC Pictures |
| Heart Eyes | $1,325,000 | -51% | 2,406 | -597 | $551 | $28,887,000 | 4 | Sony Pictures |
| The Unbreakable Boy | $1,200,000 | -50% | 1,717 | 30 | $699 | $4,532,392 | 2 | Lionsgate |
| One of Them Days | $925,000 | -33% | 875 | -229 | $1,057 | $47,471,000 | 7 | Sony Pictures |
| Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX -Beginning- | $916,664 | 784 | $1,169 | $916,664 | 1 | GKIDS | ||
| A Complete Unknown | $904,000 | 12% | 865 | 135 | $1,045 | $73,765,160 | 10 | Searchlight … |
| Riff Raff | $901,000 | 1,004 | $897 | $901,000 | 1 | Roadside Att… | ||
| My Dead Friend Zoe | $755,000 | 780 | $968 | $755,000 | 1 | Briarcliff E… | ||
| Becoming Led Zeppelin | $740,000 | -24% | 838 | -102 | $883 | $8,632,000 | 4 | Sony Picture… |
| I’m Still Here | $530,000 | 17% | 512 | -250 | $1,035 | $5,128,000 | 7 | Sony Picture… |
| The Brutalist | $439,077 | 24% | 680 | 179 | $646 | $15,600,266 | 11 | A24 |
| Love Hurts | $400,000 | -64% | 1,212 | -1,207 | $330 | $15,395,000 | 4 | Universal |
| Moana 2 | $400,000 | -29% | 535 | -95 | $748 | $459,366,321 | 14 | Walt Disney |
| Flight Risk | $290,000 | -52% | 595 | -273 | $487 | $29,468,335 | 6 | Lionsgate |
| Anora | $260,000 | 135% | 808 | 400 | $322 | $15,943,235 | 20 | Neon |
| Sonic the Hedgehog 3 | $215,000 | -41% | 402 | -189 | $535 | $235,604,000 | 11 | Paramount Pi… |
| Wicked | $151,000 | -25% | 620 | 138 | $244 | $473,020,000 | 15 | Universal |
| Conclave | $150,000 | 96% | 663 | 220 | $226 | $32,493,000 | 19 | Focus Features |
| Legends of the Condor Heroes: The Gallants | $95,000 | -72% | 200 | n/c | $475 | $563,000 | 2 | Sony Pictures |
| Brothers After War | $78,225 | 134 | $584 | $78,225 | 1 | SDG Releasing | ||
| Flow | $52,100 | -31% | 119 | -51 | $438 | $4,347,210 | 15 | Janus Films |
| The Accidental Getaway Driver | $41,000 | 4 | $10,250 | $41,000 | 1 | Utopia | ||
| Universal Language | $26,150 | -39% | 29 | 6 | $902 | $139,109 | 24 | Oscilloscope… |
| Parthenope | $23,773 | -76% | 62 | -77 | $383 | $269,176 | 4 | A24 |
| Unholy Song | $21,485 | 20 | $1,074 | $21,485 | 1 | Hemdale | ||
| Rats! | $18,762 | 14 | $1,340 | $18,762 | 1 | Yellow Veil … | ||
| The Seed of the Sacred Fig | $8,200 | -21% | 24 | 6 | $342 | $848,228 | 14 | Neon |
| A Real Pain | $6,000 | 1 | 15 | n/c | $400 | $8,345,472 | 18 | Searchlight … |
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