Weekend Box Office: JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX Bombs in Major Franchise Upset

1. Joker: Folie à Deux
Warner Bros. | NEW
$40M Domestic Opening Weekend
$121.1M Global Cume

After very early projections had it looking at a $100M+ debut, Warner Bros.’ sequel Joker: Folie à Deux has crashed and burned with an estimated $40M domestic opening on 4,102 screens for a $9,751 PSA. Compare that to the original Joker from the same October 4 frame in 2019, which debuted to $96.2M on 4,374 screens with a $21,994 PSA. The sequel’s $40M performance is well below even the lowest forecasts, including our own in the $50M-$60M range, and could potentially sink into the high $30Ms when Monday actuals arrive, with some outlets like Deadline already reporting lower at $39M. The 415 North American IMAX screens (the movie was shot with IMAX cameras) brought in $5M, 12.5% of the domestic total.

Here’s how the 3-Day looked, including $7M from Thursday previews (the original took in $13.3M that same Thursday)…

• Friday – $20.6M
• Saturday – $11.4M
• Sunday – $8M

That over 50% falloff from Friday to Sunday projections can be attributed to some of the most poisonous word of mouth for any blockbuster this year. CinemaScore was a “D,” while PostTrak gave the film 1/2 a star, and Rotten Tomatoes critical/audience were in virtual alignment with 33%/31% rotten, respectively. Launching Joker 2 early at the Venice Film Festival gave critics far too much time to eviscerate the movie, tamping down public interest. For comparison, Marvel Studios went into crisis mode last year when The Marvels debuted to $46.1M, 62% RT critical, and a “B” CinemaScore. Joker: Folie à Deux differs from The Marvels in that it is not a part of an already existing cinematic universe (either the discontinued DC Extended Universe or the revamped DCU that James Gunn will launch next year with Superman), thus its failure at the box office won’t necessarily have any major downstream effects on Warners’ future plans for their DC slate… beyond, perhaps, “no musicals.”

The audience was predominantly under-35 adults (age 18-34) at 63%, with the biggest single demographic being men over 25 (41%). Women under 25, who may have been drawn in by the Gaga factor, only represented 16% of ticket buyers.

Here’s how demographics looked…

• 43% – Caucasian
• 27% – Latino and Hispanic
• 17% Asian
• 8% – Black
• 5% – NatAm/Other

The biggest turn-off appears to be the fact that the movie is equal parts musical and courtroom drama, two genres anathema to superhero movies, i.e. not what fanboys (men made up 60% of the weekend audience) were expecting/wanted. Phillips’ central idea of putting his main character on trial for what he did in the first movie is provocative but also the kind of thing which tends to feel like an indictment of the audience (see the infamous Seinfeld series finale). This is certainly reflected in that “D” CinemaScore, the first time a Hollywood comic book movie has earned this rating. The disastrous 2015 Fantastic Four reboot was the previous record holder with a “C-” score.

Phillips may have been trying to get a reaction by tailoring Folie à Deux as an anti-sequel, but fans appear to have retaliated with their wallets. It’s difficult to pin the blame on an R rating and violent subject matter when we had a wildly successful R-rated superhero movie in Deadpool & Wolverine this year; even though that one was incredibly violent, it was still essentially a colorful/fun crowd-pleaser in the MCU tradition ,as opposed to the bleak/depressing nihilism of Joker 2.

It’s also easy to forget in all the hoopla regarding his version of the Joker character—despite his immense talent and multiple Oscar nods, including a win for Joker—Phoenix’s presence alone is not enough to open a movie. Of the twelve movies the actor has been in over the last decade, only three (Her, Joker, Napoleon) have grossed more than seven digits at the domestic box office, and only one of those (Joker) was a significant hit. At the end of the day, the first Joker was an anomaly in a filmography mainly recognized for not typically catering to commercial interests. Lady Gaga, for all the millions she earns annually from her music, has not been terribly prolific in movies and—like Madonna before her—is no guarantee of butts in seats, as her last starring role in House of Gucci proved ($53.8M domestic). WB can hope that her accompanying album Harlequin (currently at the top of iTunes charts) can offset some of the embarrassment from the film’s performance.

International numbers are a bit brighter for Joker 2, with an estimated $81.1M on 25,788 screens in 76 overseas markets, excluding Japan and China, where the movie open later this month. The 400 IMAX screens in international markets contributed $5M, making the global IMAX total for this title $10M. Top 3 markets were the UK ($8M), Germany ($6.9M), and Italy ($5.6M). The UK was the biggest overseas territory for the last film as well ($15.4M opening/$72.5M cume), and the overall global take for the sequel stands at $121.1M.

Other Notable Performances

Universal and DreamWorks’ animated The Wild Robot might have been a beneficiary of bad Joker buzz, coming in at the higher end of our second frame predictions with $18.7M, a -48% drop on 3,997 screens (+35 from week 1) for a $4,679 PSA to place #2. Overseas the movie held strong as well with $13M in 8,064 locations, only a -12% drop in holdover markets while adding new ones including Germany and Korea. This performance is above Bad Guys, Migration, and Trolls in like markets, excluding China. The domestic cume now stands at $63.9M while it crossed the $100M milestone globally with $100.4M. Future markets in the staggered release include France (Oct 9), Brazil/Italy (Oct 10), Spain (Oct 11), UK & Ireland (Oct 18), and Japan all the way into next year on February 25.

Lionsgate’s White Bird: A Wonder Story continued the studio’s string of DOA releases as the prequel/sequel to 2017’s smash Wonder opened to an estimated $1.53M in 1,018 theaters for a $1,503 PSA at #6. After being repeatedly delayed from its initial October 2022 date, the movie did well enough critically with 73% fresh on RT, while audiences gave it 98% and CinemaScore was an A+. Helen Mirren was the biggest name in the cast of this new picture, whereas the 2017 movie had Julia Roberts and Owen Wilson opening Wonder to $27.5M on 3,096 screens to an eventual $132.4M domestic take. If you really want an ugly comparison, the 9th frame of the first Wonder took in $1.2M on 970 screens.

Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates | Weekend 40 – 2024
Total 3-Day Domestic Estimates: $86,713,448M | (+4.8% vs 2023)