September’s slate of sequels rolls on with the third frame of the month offering up the third installment of Kenneth Branagh’s series of Agatha Christie adaptations, while other market holdovers hope to carry their weight.
A HAUNTING IN VENICE
20th Century Studios
September 15, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $14M-$19M
PROS:
- The return of Branagh both in front of and behind the camera is a motivating factor for fans of Murder on the Orient Express (2017) and Death on the Nile (2022), as is the casting of another star-driven ensemble cast for A Haunting in Venice.
- Venice‘s lean into supernatural and horror elements could help the film reach beyond the typically older female-driven audience of the prior Christie adaptations, especially as Halloween season takes hold.
- Pre-sale trends are encouraging for the most part with models ahead of last weekend’s My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 and Death on the Nile itself.
CONS:
- While deflated by Super Bowl weekend and the late stages of Covid-19’s impact on audience sentiment in early 2022, Nile‘s $12.9 million domestic start declined 55 percent from Orient Express‘ $28.7 million debut.
- As a contrast to Venice‘s potential audience expansion compared to Nile, it could be argued that the horror lean for this sequel may be counteracted by existing competition for younger genre fans vis-à-vis The Nun II‘s second frame (though that film itself is likely to see a sharp decline).
Current projection ranges call for a 31% increase from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $43.05 million in 2022 and a 42% decrease from 2019’s $97 million frame.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 17 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| A Haunting in Venice | 20th Century Studios | $17,200,000 | $17,200,000 | ~3,200 | NEW |
| The Nun II | Warner Bros. Pictures | $11,800,000 | $53,100,000 | ~3,728 | -64% |
| The Equalizer 3 | Sony & Columbia Pictures | $7,100,000 | $73,400,000 | ~3,600 | -41% |
| My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 | Focus Features | $5,500,000 | $19,000,000 | ~3,650 | -45% |
| Barbie | Warner Bros. Pictures | $4,100,000 | $626,300,000 | ~3,300 | -28% |
| Blue Beetle | Warner Bros. Pictures | $2,800,000 | $67,600,000 | ~2,700 | -27% |
| Gran Turismo | Sony Pictures | $2,400,000 | $39,400,000 | ~2,300 | -31% |
| Oppenheimer | Universal Pictures | $2,200,000 | $318,700,000 | ~2,000 | -29% |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem | Paramount Pictures | $2,100,000 | $114,200,000 | ~2,300 | -24% |
| Bottoms | Orion Pictures | $1,400,000 | $10,000,000 | ~1,300 | -32% |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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