Thursday Update: Forecasts for Killers of the Flower Moon and Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour have been revised from preliminary Wednesday projections in the report below.
Wednesday Analysis: Two polar opposite films will contend for the top spot at the box office this weekend as Leonardo DiCaprio and Martin Scorsese’s latest prestige film challenges the second frame of Taylor Swift’s blockbuster concert film.
Killers of the Flower Moon
Paramount Pictures & Apple
October 20, 2023 (WIDE)
(Revised/Final) Opening Weekend Range: $27M-$39M
WEEKEND PROS:
- As referenced in prior forecasts, DiCaprio and Scorsese’s history at the box office is among the most accomplished of any star-director duo in cinema history. Their older demographic appeal and the film’s run time will likely create some backloading and weekend showtime preference among consumers.
- With 119 reviews logged at the time of this writing, Rotten Tomatoes critics have given the Flower Moon a 95 percent fresh rating. That should boost confidence among older audiences, a demographic that’s been more challenging to bring back into cinemas of late recently without significant hooks (ala Top Gun: Maverick and Oppenheimer).
- Flower Moon‘s pre-sales have lived up to the hype of an anticipated epic drama geared towards adult audiences. The film is trending 79 percent ahead of The Creator‘s Thursday previews, plus 181 percent ahead of the same film’s Friday business, across sampled markets entering Wednesday.
- On the Taylor Swift front, The Eras Tour will aim to bring back Swifties in the concert film’s second frame after setting a new concert film record with its $92.8 million opening weekend. With weekend-only showtime engagements, that should create some demand bottlenecking into the sophomore outing.
WEEKEND CONS:
- Again, as noted, Flower Moon‘s biggest deterrent in forecasts is its 226-minute run time. While three-hour-plus films have succeeded before, it will be important for audience reception to closely align with that of industry critics if word of mouth is to help the film’s box office run reach the higher end of expectations.
- As the SAG-AFTRA strike has continued in the wake of the WGA’s labor resolution several weeks ago, DiCaprio has been unable to promote and raise awareness for Flower Moon on a typical press tour of the sort that has historically benefited films sharing similar demographics and appeal.
- With Eras Tour still claiming some premium formats, Flower Moon will rely on a less-than-optimal footprint in those auditoriums (Imax included).
- With all of the above factors in mind, industry expectations for Flower Moon are notably lower than this report’s forecast ranges.
- Speaking of Eras Tour, given the sharply frontloaded nature of pre-sales during its opening frame, holdover projections are again fairly volatile. This is particularly true given the fact that the film will lose some of the premium screen presence that boosted average ticket prices during the first weekend. It also will have Thursday evening shows again.
Current projection ranges call for a 25% decrease from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $110.2 million in 2022 and a 37% decrease from 2019’s $129.8 million frame.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 22 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| Killers of the Flower Moon (THU) | Paramount Pictures & Apple | $30,200,000* | $30,200,000* | 3,621 | NEW |
| Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour (THU) | AMC Theatres Distribution & Variance Films | $30,100,000** | $123,000,000** | ~3,855 | -68% |
| The Exorcist: Believer | Universal Pictures & Blumhouse | $6,300,000 | $54,900,000 | ~3,400 | -43% |
| PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie | Paramount Pictures | $4,500,000 | $56,000,000 | ~3,400 | -35% |
| Saw X | Lionsgate | $3,900,000 | $47,500,000 | ~2,800 | -31% |
| The Creator | 20th Century Studios | $2,500,000 | $36,600,000 | ~2,500 | -42% |
| The Nightmare Before Christmas: 30th Anniversary | Walt Disney Pictures | $1,400,000 | $1,400,000 | ~1,500 | NEW |
| The Blind | Fathom Events | $1,300,000 | $16,100,000 | ~1,000 | -33% |
| A Haunting in Venice | 20th Century Studios | $1,100,000 | $40,900,000 | ~1,400 | -43% |
| The Nun II | Warner Bros. Pictures | $1,000,000 | $85,400,000 | ~1,500 | -38% |
*= revised Thursday from $35.4 million Wednesday morning opening forecast (range revised from $30-42 million to $27-39 million)
**= revised Thursday from $33.7 million Wednesday morning forecast for second weekend
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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