The doldrums of this year’s winter box office finally begin to fade away this weekend with the release of 2024’s first tentpole theatrical event.
Dune: Part Two
Warner Bros.
March 1, 2024 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $71M-$86M
WEEKEND PROS:
- As previously highlighted, the 2021 adaptation was a critical and commercial success with $108.9 million domestically and $433.8 million worldwide despite a simultaneous streaming release during the early phases of pandemic recovery, with Covid still a significant concern among some audiences.
- Dune: Part Two‘s pre-sales have dwarfed Part One‘s through the same point before release by over 116 percent according to various models. Drivers include the film’s stellar reviews (97 percent from 182 Rotten Tomatoes critics as of Wednesday morning), goodwill gleaned from its predecessor, pent-up demand for a theatrical event film, and the rising star power of Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya, who topline the film alongside a strong ensemble cast.
- Counter-programming the sci-fi spectacle, Fathom Events will bring its month-long release pattern of The Chosen‘s new season to a close with the final two episodes this weekend. Fans of the popular faith-driven series should again drive healthy business for the specialty programming sector with the aim to build upon the earnings of Episodes 4 – 6.
The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7 – 8
Fathom Events
February 29, 2024 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $4M-$6M
WEEKEND CONS:
- Expectations for Dune: Part Two should be tempered somewhat by the reality that sci-fi films historically have a higher barrier to entry outside dedicated fan bases, particularly when it comes to sequels. Pre-sales have generally reflected this trend so far with an initial rush last month followed by modest growth and PLF preference in recent weeks.
- This new season of The Chosen has shown a slight regression in earnings as Episodes 4 – 6 bowed to a $3.6 million three-day weekend, off from Episodes 1 – 3 ($5.9 million) and last year’s Season 3 Finale ($5.3 million).
Current projection ranges call for a 5% decrease from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $112.5 million in 2023 and a 13% increase from 2019’s $94.4 million during the same calendar frames.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 3 | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| Dune: Part Two | Warner Bros. Pictures | $80,900,000 | $80,900,000 | NEW |
| Bob Marley: One Love | Paramount Pictures | $7,900,000 | $83,200,000 | -41% |
| The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7 – 8 | Fathom Events | $4,000,000 | $5,000,000 | NEW |
| Ordinary Angels | Lionsgate & Kingdom Story Company | $3,100,000 | $11,400,000 | -50% |
| Madame Web | Sony & Columbia Pictures | $2,600,000 | $39,700,000 | -56% |
| Migration | Universal Pictures & Illumination | $2,100,000 | $123,000,000 | -27% |
| Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training | Sony Pictures & Crunchyroll | $1,800,000 | $15,500,000 | -84% |
| Wonka | Warner Bros. Pictures | $1,700,000 | $216,700,000 | -31% |
| The Beekeeper | MGM | $1,200,000 | $65,000,000 | -38% |
| Argylle | Universal Pictures | $1,100,000 | $43,600,000 | -60% |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent exact ranking as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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