The first half of 2023 comes to a close as the long Fourth of July weekend sees one last ride at the box office for one of film history’s most iconic characters.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Disney / Lucasfilm
June 30, 2023 (WIDE)
3-Day Opening Weekend Range: $60M-$77M
5-Day Opening Weekend Range: $80M-$103M
PROS:
- Harrison Ford’s final performance as one of cinema’s most iconic heroes amps up the nostalgia factor for Dial of Destiny. The addition of co-star/co-writer Phoebe Waller-Bridge to the 42-year-old franchise may boost the film’s appeal among adult women.
- Pre-sales have been a mixed bag. On the upside, Dial of Destiny‘s first 36 hours of sales are out-pacing Fast X and John Wick: Chapter 4 by 64 percent and 20 percent in key sample markets, respectively, as we approach the mid-week point.
- Notable is the relative strength of pre-sales beyond coastal cities and across middle America. Friday pre-sales have also started outpacing Thursday’s previews as of Wednesday morning, with additional spread across the long weekend offering optimism.
- Despite negative early reviews out of Cannes, Dial‘s Rotten Tomatoes score has climbed into “fresh” territory with a 66 percent mark as of Wednesday.
- With a lack of significant competition for those wanting big-screen spectacle over the holiday weekend—no openers or holdovers reached $20 million last weekend—timing could be on Indy’s side. The film’s relatively open runway could also make it less front-loaded than the likes of comic book tentpoles or fellow Lucasfilm IP Star Wars.
- While competition for the adult male audience will ramp up heavily in mid-July, Indiana Jones has a week-and-half window to capitalize on premium format screens and could still serve as the more family-friendly summer adventure option even after Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One and Oppenheimer arrive next month.
CONS:
- On the other side of the pre-sale coin, Dial is lagging well behind the preview trends of other non-superhero tentpoles like Avatar: The Way of Water (by 50 percent), Jurassic World Dominion (44 percent), and Top Gun: Maverick (57 percent).
- As noted in prior forecasts, franchise goodwill wasn’t exactly left at its peak 15 years ago when Kingdom of the Crystal Skull divided audiences. If early word of mouth isn’t predominately positive for Dial, its staying power could be stunted—especially given the aforementioned competition hitting the big screen in July.
- The moviegoing audience has continued to trend younger, and Indiana Jones has not been at the forefront of pop culture in quite some time. Appealing to the under-25 crowd could be a struggle, as it doesn’t appear from marketing that the film has added any major elements for that consumer base.
- To some extent, recent criticisms over how Disney has creatively handled Marvel, Star Wars, and other properties in recent years could have some negative splash effect on Indiana Jones as they share similar demographics and crossover fan circles.
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
Universal / DreamWorks Animation
June 30, 2023 (WIDE)
3-Day Opening Weekend Range: $6M-$9M
5-Day Opening Weekend Range: $8.5M-$12.5M
PROS:
- Families with young daughters could be attracted to this option over the holiday period as a counter-programmer to the male-driven Indiana Jones sequel.
CONS:
- In addition to Dial of Destiny swallowing up premium screen space, competition for family audiences could prove somewhat challenging, with Across the Spider-Verse, Elemental, and The Little Mermaid remaining significant players in the market.
Current projection ranges call for a 23% to 33% percent decrease from last weekend’s $106 million top ten aggregate.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 2 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd | 5-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Tuesday, July 4 |
| Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny | Disney / Lucasfilm | $70,300,000 | $70,300,000 | 4,500 | NEW | $94,400,000 | $94,400,000 |
| Elemental | Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar | $12,600,000 | $89,200,000 | ~3,600 | -32% | $18,500,000 | $95,100,000 |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $12,500,000 | $339,900,000 | ~3,200 | -34% | $19,200,000 | $346,500,000 |
| No Hard Feelings | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $8,000,000 | $30,000,000 | ~3,208 | -47% | $8,900,000 | $30,900,000 |
| Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken | Universal / DreamWorks Animation | $7,300,000 | $7,300,000 | 3,400 | NEW | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 |
| The Flash | Warner Bros. Pictures | $6,800,000 | $101,000,000 | ~2,800 | -55% | $10,000,000 | $104,100,000 |
| Transformers: Rise of the Beasts | Paramount Pictures | $5,600,000 | $134,200,000 | ~2,900 | -52% | $8,200,000 | $136,900,000 |
| Asteroid City | Focus Features | $5,000,000 | $19,600,000 | ~1,900 | -45% | $7,400,000 | $21,900,000 |
| The Little Mermaid (2023) | Walt Disney Pictures | $4,400,000 | $279,900,000 | ~2,400 | -49% | $6,700,000 | $282,200,000 |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | Disney / Marvel Studios | $1,800,000 | $354,800,000 | ~1,200 | -48% | $2,800,000 | $355,900,000 |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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