Although Super Bowl weekend has occasionally delivered sleepers or modest performers, this year looks to be another quiet one as major distributors sit out the frame once again.
Lisa Frankenstein
Focus Features
February 9, 2024 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $5M-$9M
WEEKEND PROS:
- Lisa Frankenstein‘s biggest strength comes from potential appeal to young women, driven by stars Kathryn Newton and Cole Sprouse alongside writer Diablo Cody.
- Holdovers will again be crucial as films like Wonka, The Beekeeper, Migration, and Anyone But You, alongside Oscar candidates such as American Fiction and Poor Things, should continue to draw healthy chase weekend business over the Friday and Saturday portions of the big game weekend. Warner Bros.’ reissue of Dune could also yield some healthy foot traffic from fans.
WEEKEND CONS:
- Lisa Frankenstein‘s pre-sales trail those of Renfield and Last Night in Soho at the same point before release, while the film’s similar thematic elements could also be partially overshadowed by the ongoing award season and audience success enjoyed by Poor Things.
- As alluded to, the Super Bowl will drastically depress Sunday moviegoing—by 60 percent or more in many cases relative to Saturday business.
- Not aiding holdover prowess will be the fact that Argylle underperformed in its debut. It and fellow male-driven The Beekeeper will be most impacted by the sporting event.
Current projection ranges call for a 50% decrease from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $47.8 million on Super Bowl weekend in 2023 and a 75% decrease from 2019’s $95 million post-Super Bowl frame.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 11 | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| Lisa Frankenstein | Focus Features | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | NEW |
| Argylle | Universal Pictures | $5,800,000 | $27,400,000 | -67% |
| Wonka | Warner Bros. Pictures | $3,200,000 | $205,300,000 | -32% |
| The Beekeeper | MGM | $3,100,000 | $54,400,000 | -41% |
| Migration | Universal Pictures & Illumination | $3,000,000 | $110,100,000 | -28% |
| Anyone But You | Sony & Columbia Pictures | $2,400,000 | $79,800,000 | -30% |
| Mean Girls (2023) | Paramount Pictures | $2,300,000 | $69,600,000 | -40% |
| American Fiction | MGM | $1,600,000 | $17,700,000 | -33% |
| Poor Things | Searchlight Pictures | $1,300,000 | $30,400,000 | -40% |
| The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1 – 3 | Fathom Events | $1,100,000 | $10,800,000 | -81% |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent exact ranking as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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