Friday Update: Disney reports this morning that Quantumania scored $17.5 million from Thursday’s domestic previews beginning at 3pm.
Among Marvel Studios titles, that’s well ahead of the $11.5 million earned by 2018’s Ant-Man and the Wasp, and expectedly behind the recent starts of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($28 million), Thor: Love and Thunder ($29 million), and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($36 million). All-time among February releases, it’s second only to Black Panther ($25.2 million).
As always worth noting, comparisons are not apples-to-apples in any of these cases. The Thursday preview does line up with pre-release expectations and keeps the three-day weekend on track for a likely $95 million-plus debut as forecast below.
Internationally, the film has earned $23.8 million through Thursday across 43 markets.
More updates to follow throughout the week.
Wednesday Report: After a depressed Super Bowl weekend in movie theaters, Presidents Day weekend looks to see the market rejuvenated by the arrival of the industry’s first major tentpole in two months.
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Disney & Marvel Studios
PROS:
- Following up on prior tracking, Quantumania remains well ahead of the pace of prior Ant-Man films and remains a candidate to deliver the sub-franchise’s first $100 million weekend debut. It’s also the strongest tracked film across social metrics and pre-sales of any February outside of the month’s top two opening weekend record holders, Black Panther ($202 million) and Deadpool ($132.4 million).
- The absence of major tentpole releases since Avatar: The Way of Water has created pent-up demand for avid moviegoers, and especially Marvel fans as this is the first MCU release since November’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. It will have a full spread of premium screens, including IMAX and 3D options.
- Enthusiasm for the big screen introduction of Jonathan Majors’ Kang the Conquerer, previously seen in the Disney+ series Loki, remains high as marketing hypes the character as the franchise’s next “big bad” villain that will impact the MCU for years to come.
- Ant-Man has historically been a strong player with family audiences due to the lighter, comedic nature of the prior two films. With Presidents Day on Monday and most kids out of school, the film should enjoy softer-than-normal Sunday and Monday drops.
CONS:
- The most significant development in the film’s pre-release tracking cycle has been lukewarm reception by critics this week. Quantumania currently owns a 53 percent score from 145 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, the second lowest of any MCU theatrical release to date (Eternals earned 47 percent back in November 2021). Without any potential “review bump”, a sub-$100 million three-day weekend remains very possible.
- Coming off of a Phase 4 that divided some fans and audiences, sentiment and anticipation for each next chapter is increasingly hinged on where goodwill for the overall brand stands. While still healthy in relative terms with other franchises, this film’s reception may become an important inflection point if audience reception ends up reflecting that of critics.
Opening Weekend Ranges
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Opening Weekend Range: $95 – 110 million
Marlowe
Opening Weekend Range: <$1.5 million
Weekend Forecast & Location Count Projections
Current projection ranges are for a 168 to 198 percent increase from last weekend’s $47.8 million top ten aggregate.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 19 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd | 4-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Monday, February 20 |
| Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | Disney & Marvel Studios | $102,500,000 | $102,500,000 | ~4,300 | NEW | $116,400,000 | $116,400,000 |
| Puss in Boots: The Last Wish | Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation | $5,000,000 | $165,300,000 | ~3,300 | -10% | $6,700,000 | $167,000,000 |
| Magic Mike’s Last Dance | Warner Bros. Pictures | $4,600,000 | $17,500,000 | ~2,800 | -47% | $5,200,000 | $18,100,000 |
| Avatar: The Way of Water | Disney & 20th Century Studios | $4,500,000 | $654,600,000 | ~2,800 | -38% | $5,700,000 | $655,800,000 |
| 80 for Brady | Paramount Pictures | $4,300,000 | $33,000,000 | ~3,300 | -26% | $5,100,000 | $33,800,000 |
| Titanic (25th Anniversary Re-Release) | Paramount Pictures | $3,400,000 | $13,000,000 | ~2,400 | -49% | $4,000,000 | $13,600,000 |
| Knock at the Cabin | Universal Pictures | $3,300,000 | $29,100,000 | ~2,900 | -39% | $3,800,000 | $29,700,000 |
| A Man Called Otto | Sony & Columbia Pictures | $2,200,000 | $61,200,000 | ~1,800 | -15% | $2,800,000 | $61,800,000 |
| Missing | Sony & Screen Gems | $1,700,000 | $29,500,000 | ~1,600 | -33% | $2,000,000 | $29,700,000 |
| M3GAN | Universal Pictures & Blumhouse | $1,600,000 | $93,700,000 | ~1,700 | -34% | $1,900,000 | $94,000,000 |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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