The post-Martin Luther King, Jr. weekend looks to be a quiet one, with most studios sitting out the weekend rather than compete with NFL playoffs.
I.S.S.
Bleecker Street
January 19, 2024 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $2M-$6M
WEEKEND PROS:
- Mean Girls has a solid chance to repeat atop the market following its healthy $28.64 million three-day bow over the MLK frame. It faces no significant competition this weekend.
- Similarly, The Beekeeper hopes to ride a 94 percent Rotten Tomatoes audience score into its chase weekends after it exceeded expectations with a $16.6 million three-day start over the holiday.
- I.S.S. could attract sci-fi and thriller genre fans as the lone wide release this weekend in a market that’s comparatively short on major holdovers—even for this time of year.
- Poor Things will follow its successful limited box office run, timed to awards season, with a nationwide expansion from 580 locations to an estimated 1,200-plus this weekend.
WEEKEND CONS:
- Mean Girls‘ 66 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes indicates a divided moviegoer reception that could hold back staying power.
- I.S.S. is tracking on the severe end of caution with minimal pre-sale and social media activity, partly attributable to a light marketing footprint relative to major studio releases.
- In general, the market will be affected by winter storms that have impacted many parts of North America this week, as well as NFL playoffs on both Saturday and Sunday.
Current projection ranges call for a 29% decrease from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $70.8 million in 2023 and a 54% decrease from 2019’s $109.5 million frame.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 21 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| Mean Girls (2024) | Paramount Pictures | $12,500,000 | $51,300,000 | ~3,791 | -56% |
| The Beekeeper | MGM | $7,900,000 | $30,100,000 | ~3,303 | -52% |
| Wonka | Warner Bros. Pictures | $6,000,000 | $186,700,000 | ~3,200 | -29% |
| Anyone But You | Sony & Columbia Pictures | $5,000,000 | $63,500,000 | ~2,900 | -30% |
| Migration | Universal Pictures & Illumination | $4,900,000 | $94,400,000 | ~3,100 | -21% |
| I.S.S. | Bleecker Street | $3,300,000 | $3,300,000 | ~2,324 | NEW |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent exact ranking as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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