Friday Update: Lionsgate reports this morning that Are You There God?… earned $600K from domestic previews, including early access shows and Thursday previews.
That figure falls a bit shy of expectations baked into previous forecasts, unfortunately, but does still keep the film in line to reach or exceed the studio’s expected $7 to 9 million opening weekend. For comparison, A Man Called Otto earned $635K in its wide release previews ahead of a $12.8 million weekend. Missing earned a similar $760K, onward to $9.2 million.
Sisu did live up to expectations, though, earning a robust $585K in semi-wide preview release as the film opens in 1,006 locations this weekend. That figures tops last week’s The Covenant ($400K) while registering close to half of Violent Night ($1.1 million). A weekend debut in the mid-single-digit million range remains likely.
Meanwhile, Big George Foreman earned $250K from 2,600 locations on Thursday. That’s well below the $615K earned by Devotion last November and in line with Champions‘ own $250K last month.
Prior analysis and forecasts are below.
Wednesday Report: Another weekend, another incoming record for The Super Mario Bros. Movie. Can spring movie season’s final crop of counter-programmers make a dent, though?
Analysis and forecasts below.
PROS:
- The Super Mario Bros. Movie is fresh off a record third weekend performance by an animated film, taking in $59.9 million. The event family film remains unchallenged in the marketplace again this coming frame and is trending to potentially claim another $40 million or more.
Not only would that range send it far past Incredibles 2‘s standing fourth weekend record for animation ($28.4 million), it gives Mario a chance to rival the five best fourth frames in history among wide releases: Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($42.4 million) is currently fourth, followed closely by Black Panther ($40.8 million), The Avengers ($36.7 million), and Spider-Man: No Way Home ($32.6 million).
Top Gun: Maverick ($44.7 million), Avatar: The Way of Water ($45.8 million), and Avatar ($50.3 million) represent the top three.
- Among openers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. will be the standout thanks to its generational appeal and iconic source material.
The film’s strongest play is with women over 25, though the film is expected to branch out into younger demos thanks to said cultural impact of Judy Blume’s original novel and the film’s own stellar reviews (currently 98 percent from 43 critics on Rotten Tomatoes).
Pre-sale paces are ahead of the female-skewing Missing and comparable to The Woman King in more bullish models.
- Big George Foreman will court a male-driven audience, namely fans of the titular boxing legend and jack of many trades. The faith-based aspect could also help it stand out with religious audiences.
- Sisu is the dark horse candidate of the weekend with recent trailers in front of John Wick: Chapter 4 and other male-driven films generating buzz for its domestic release. Thursday pre-sales aren’t far behind films like 65 and Violent Night on a location-for-location basis.
CONS:
- Margaret‘s pre-sales have seen a slow ramp-up relative to most female-skewing films, though the highly encouraging sign is that while preview business isn’t necessarily overwhelming, Friday sales and onward look very encouraging. Especially with Mother’s Day in mind for its third frame, that may simply translate to far less front-loading than would be expected of such a film, whose most recent analog is probably Where the Crawdads Sing.
Lionsgate cautiously expects between $7 million and $9 million this weekend.
- Conversely, pre-sales across the board for Big George Foreman have left much to be desired as marketing has made little impact in recent weeks. The glut of male-driven pics already in the market, no available critics’ reviews, and some depressed female audience interest (who normally give faith-based films a solid foundation) could be in play.
Sony expects around $5 million this weekend.
- Sisu is reported by the studio to open in around 900 locations this weekend, and its violent nature will surely give it some ceiling among casual audiences.
Weekend Ranges
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Fourth Weekend Range: $38 – 46 million
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
Opening Weekend Range: $9 – 17 million (revised)
Big George Foreman
Opening Weekend Range: $3 – 6 million (revised)
Sisu
Opening Weekend Range: $3 – 6 million (revised)
Weekend Forecast & Location Count Projections
Current projection ranges call for a 15 to 24 percent decline from last weekend’s $118.6 million top ten aggregate.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 30 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| The Super Mario Bros. Movie | Universal Pictures | $41,100,000 | $491,400,000 | ~3,900 | -31% |
| Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. | Lionsgate | $13,000,000 (revised) | $13,000,000 (revised) | ~3,100 | NEW |
| Evil Dead Rise | Warner Bros. Pictures | $10,100,000 | $42,300,000 | ~3,402 | -59% |
| Sisu | Lionsgate | $5,000,000 (revised) | $5,000,000 (revised) | ~1,000 | NEW |
| Big George Foreman | Sony / AFFIRM Films | $4,400,000 (revised) | $4,400,000 (revised) | ~3,000 | NEW |
| Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves | Paramount Pictures | $4,100,000 | $88,100,000 | ~2,700 | -26% |
| John Wick: Chapter 4 | Lionsgate | $3,800,000 | $174,800,000 | ~2,400 | -35% |
| Air | Amazon Studios | $3,700,000 | $47,200,000 | ~2,500 | -32% |
| Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant | MGM & STX Films | $3,300,000 | $11,900,000 | ~2,611 | -48% |
| Beau Is Afraid | A24 | $2,000,000 | $6,300,000 | ~1,900 | -26% |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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