The most unexpected addition to this fall’s release slate is set to shake up the box office with a historic debut over the coming weekend.
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour
AMC Theatres & Variance Films
October 13, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $105M-$145M
PROS:
- As noted in prior reports, Swift’s global tour ignited record-breaking sales throughout 2023 with many fans not able to attend the concert due to quick sellouts.
- When pre-sales began, Taylor Swift’s theatrical concert event generated initial activity on par with the likes of the Marvel and Star Wars franchises thanks to her dedicated and eager fanbase. At the time of writing this report, sample markets show Friday’s admissions are tracking 57 percent ahead of The Little Mermaid‘s combined preview and Friday attendance earlier this year.
- With average ticket prices more than 40 percent higher than the typical release this year—augmented by surcharges for premium format screenings, which are selling out in many areas—Eras Tour has a strong likelihood at not just topping the box office record for concert films but exceeding $100 million in its first weekend.
CONS:
- Pre-sale pacing has slowed noticeably in the last few weeks, though this is not unexpected as her fans were expected to drive robust demand upfront. This is an expected circumstance with no true one-to-one comparison films on record.
- For the first weekend of release, Saturday pre-sales are currently pacing 31 percent behind Friday’s opening day in sample markets.
- The film’s weekend-only engagement over the next few weeks could also create some backloading trends that vary differently from a typical release.
Current projection ranges call for a 126% increase from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $72.7 million in 2022 and a 24% increase from 2019’s $132.9 million frame.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 15 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | AMC Theatres Distribution & Variance Films | $131,000,000 | $131,000,000 | ~3,850 | NEW |
| The Exorcist: Believer | Universal Pictures & Blumhouse | $9,000,000 | $42,400,000 | ~3,663 | -66% |
| PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie | Paramount Pictures | $7,800,000 | $50,900,000 | ~3,700 | -31% |
| Saw X | Lionsgate | $4,300,000 | $39,500,000 | ~3,200 | -45% |
| The Creator | 20th Century Studios | $4,000,000 | $32,200,000 | ~3,100 | -36% |
| The Blind | Fathom Events | $2,100,000 | $14,200,000 | ~1,200 | -34% |
| A Haunting in Venice | 20th Century Studios | $1,900,000 | $38,900,000 | ~2,200 | -29% |
| Dumb Money | Sony & Columbia Pictures | $1,400,000 | $13,200,000 | ~2,300 | -34% |
| The Nun II | Warner Bros. Pictures | $1,400,000 | $83,500,000 | ~2,100 | -46% |
| The Equalizer 3 | Sony & Columbia Pictures | $1,300,000 | $90,900,000 | ~1,500 | -28% |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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