After a lull in major studio releases during November’s first frame, the month begins to gain some momentum with the release of Marvel Studios’ 33rd cinematic chapter and a new faith-based offering from Sony.
The Marvels
Disney / Marvel Studios
November 10, 2023 (SEMI-WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $35M-$49M
PROS:
- As far as franchise consistency goes, Marvel remains unsurpassed in terms of widespread brand awareness, established by the studio over the last 15 years. The original Captain Marvel was a runaway blockbuster smash during its 2019 run, earning $426.8 million domestically and $1.13 billion worldwide.
- The slow autumn market could create some pent-up demand for escapism among audiences beyond loyal Marvel fans. Internet rumors hyping up this film’s post-credit scene could also help lure in some straggling moviegoers who may be on the fence.
- Veterans Day (observed on Friday) could slightly skew the typically front-loaded nature of MCU films, especially with less urgency driving interest in this sequel than recent films in the overall franchise.
CONS:
- Marvel goodwill has, unfortunately, soured over the past couple of years due to middling word of mouth across multiple films and over-exposure of the IP—also underscored by mixed reception—via Disney+ streaming series launched with the intention of expanding the brand.
- Ongoing industry labor strikes have prevented Brie Larson and cast from promoting the film, contributing to a lackluster marketing campaign which has often leaned on nostalgia rather than showcasing story, character, and how the film might move the franchise forward.
- Thursday pre-sales currently reflect these inherent and broader franchise challenges, as The Marvels lags 71 percent behind Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and 74 percent behind Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania at the same point in the pre-release window.
- With the embargo lifting on Wednesday morning, Rotten Tomatoes critics stand at a 55 percent approval rating across the first 77 published reviews.
Journey to Bethlehem
Sony / AFFIRM Films
November 10, 2023 (SEMI-WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $3M-$6M
PROS:
- Faith-based audiences could turn out once again to this Biblical musical, which hopes to capture that often under-tracked moviegoer demographic with a holiday season-friendly release.
CONS:
- Recent tracking has yet to pop as pre-sales trail the likes of faith-based releases After Death and His Only Son.
Current projection ranges call for a 63% decrease from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $206.9 million in 2022 and a 24% decrease from 2019’s $100.5 million frame.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 12 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| The Marvels | Disney & Marvel Studios | $42,200,000 | $42,200,000 | ~4,000 | NEW |
| Five Nights at Freddy’s | Universal Pictures & Blumhouse | $7,600,000 | $125,600,000 | ~3,600 | -60% |
| Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | AMC Theatres Distribution & Variance Films | $7,000,000 | $173,800,000 | ~3,000 | -49% |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | Paramount Pictures & Apple | $5,000,000 | $60,100,000 | ~3,300 | -27% |
| Journey to Bethlehem | Sony Pictures & AFFIRM Films | $4,000,000 | $4,000,000 | ~2,000 | NEW |
| Priscilla | A24 | $3,600,000 | $11,200,000 | ~2,200 | -29% |
| The Holdovers | Focus Features | $2,300,000 | $3,400,000 | ~900 | 305% |
| PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie | Paramount Pictures | $1,600,000 | $64,300,000 | ~1,900 | -21% |
| Radical | Pantelion Films | $1,400,000 | $4,900,000 | ~575 | -47% |
| The Exorcist: Believer | Universal Pictures & Blumhouse | $1,300,000 | $65,200,000 | ~1,700 | -38% |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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