The first weekend of the new year kicks off with the latest horror-thriller hopeful from Universal and Blumhouse as other holiday holdovers hope to continue anchoring the market.
Night Swim
Universal Pictures
January 5, 2024 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $10M-$15M
WEEKEND PROS:
- Night Swim boasts healthy appeal to young adult audiences, due in part to Blumhouse’s own brand appeal; both of these factors could drive last minute date night interest in a market absent similar genre content.
- Strong word of mouth for Wonka and The Color Purple should continue bolstering their post-holiday staying power amid minimal competition.
- Due to the nature of the calendar, some schools remain out for holiday break until next Monday. That could pump up further play of Migration for parents with little ones and Night Swim for high school and college-aged folk.
WEEKEND CONS:
- Night Swim is tracking a bit more softly than once projected, with pre-sales standing about 53 percent behind M3GAN through January 2—though the latter had a significant boost for weeks in advance of release via the social media hype machine.
- Overall, the market remains short of the type of event film that carried post-holiday windows in recent years, like Avatar: The Way of Water and Spider-Man: No Way Home.
Current projection ranges call for a 27% decrease from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $104.3 million in 2023 and a 36% decrease from 2019’s $119 million frame.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 7 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| Wonka | Warner Bros. Pictures | $15,200,000 | $164,500,000 | ~3,700 | -32% |
| Night Swim | Universal Pictures & Blumhouse | $12,100,000 | $12,100,000 | ~3,200 | NEW |
| Migration | Universal Pictures & Illumination | $11,300,000 | $78,900,000 | ~3,600 | -34% |
| Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | Warner Bros. Pictures | $10,700,000 | $100,700,000 | ~3,500 | -41% |
| The Color Purple | Warner Bros. Pictures | $9,000,000 | $60,700,000 | ~3,300 | -23% |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent exact ranking as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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