1. Venom: The Last Dance
Sony Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $60M – $80M
Showtime Marketshare: 29%
Pros
Tom Hardy’s cheeky, over-the-top Venom franchise gets a trilogy capper this weekend as Sony launches Venom: The Last Dance on an estimated 4000 screens. Having been shot for IMAX, it will launch on 1527 global IMAX screens across 78 markets, including China, where the previous entry did not play but where the first scored $270M. Although it has been described as “fun” but “not perfect” in some of the early reactions, most viewers and audiences will be grading this one on a curve as the previous entries have been more low-stakes B-movie fodder than serious-minded comic book movies. In other words, this dance is less ballet, more nasty girl. The first Venom opened at $80.2M in 2018 before logging $213.5M domestically and $856M WW, which is a surprise, especially after the character was poorly received in 2007’s Spider-Man 3. The Andy Serkis-helmed sequel, 2021’s Venom: Let There be Carnage, rode a post-COVID wave of fanboy hype to another identical domestic of $213.5, although globally it shrank to $501.5 without the Middle Kingdom cash flow. Carnage was the second-highest earner domestically for the Sony Spider-movies after Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, while the first Venom is still the highest-earning globally.
Cons
Kelly Marcel is a longtime collaborator of star Tom Hardy and co-wrote the scripts for the previous two Venom entries, but this is her first rodeo as an untested director. The poor reactions to Sony’s Morbius and Madame Web have shown that the studio doesn’t have much luck outside the Venom and animated Spider-Verse films, with Kraven the Hunter looking to test that further in December. We’re looking at likely the lowest-opener in the Venom franchise, potentially earning under 2022’s disastrous DC pic Black Adam ($67M). It should nevertheless carry through its second frame, where it will compete against more adult-geared films like Here and Juror No. 2.
2. Smile 2
Paramount Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $15M – $18M
Showtime Marketshare: 10%
Pros
After mildly topping its predecessor with a $23M opening (compared to Smile‘s $22.6M bow in 2022), Smile 2 is poised to become one of the highest-grossing horror entries of the year. Currently at $25M, it’s about to pass Abigail‘s lifetime cume of $25.8M and will most certainly take down Imaginary ($28M) and Night Swim ($32.4M) before the end of the weekend. Critical and audience scores all point to this being THE destination theatrical horror title for Halloween, with a broader appeal than the more grindhouse-y Terrifier.
Cons
Running on sheer momentum, Terrifier 3 managed a strong hold with only a -51% drop as it added screens. While it didn’t overwhelm Smile 2‘s opening, it could affect its second frame as holdouts try to decide which gorefest is worth their hard-earned dollar. The 2022 Smile only had an -18% drop during its second frame which brought in $18.5M… but had very little formidable horror competition besides the 5th frame of Barbarian and the $805K opening of Terrifier 2. Smile 2 has to contend with the surprise success of Terrifier 3 plus the crossover Jekyl/Hyde genre appeal of Venom, not to mention streaming options with Netflix’s Sam Raimi-produced Don’t Move dropping this weekend.
3. The Wild Robot
Universal | Week 5
Weekend Range: $6M – $8M
Showtime Marketshare: 9%
Pros
Even after Universal’s (arguably premature) Premium VOD release of Wild Robot, it still managed to do $10M last weekend, which was on the highest-end of our panel’s forecast. It only fell -28% to maintain the #2 spot, and is playing on more screens than any other title at the moment (3,829). Domestic is at $102.4M while global is hovering close to $200M with $197.8M, and with a modest $80M budget Wild Robot is well on its way to profitability and potentially sequels down the road.
Cons
Even though early reviews say it pushes the limits of its PG-13 rating, Venom: The Last Dance is still poised to siphon off some of the younger teens from Wild Robot. That might not have a catastrophic effect on the Dreamworks animated movie, but it’s an audience that hasn’t been catered to since Transformers One five weeks ago. Unseasonably warm weather on the East Coast may also drive kids towards outdoor play and Halloween activities/parades versus a theater excursion.
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