Sunday Report: Disney’s studio estimates this morning point to a $104 million three-day and $118 million domestic four-day opening haul by Marvel Studios’ Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania over this Presidents Day weekend.
That marks the third highest debut ever for the holiday frame and February overall, plus the month’s biggest debut in five years since record-holder Black Panther ($202 million three-day). 2016’s Deadpool also bowed to $132.4 million over its three-day holiday start.
Furthermore, Quantumania is living up to the hype as 2023’s first major tentpole release on the back of the Marvel brand name and a marketing campaign that successfully sold to audiences as an event release. The third film in the Ant-Man subset of Marvel Cinematic Universe films is the first of its namesake to eclipse nine digits on opening weekend, surpassing 2018’s Ant-Man and the Wasp ($75.8 million) by an estimated 37 percent in raw dollar figures.
The daily estimated breakdown includes $17.5 from previews, included in Friday’s $46.0 million (for a $28.5 million true Friday), $33.8 million for Saturday, followed by projected $24.2 million and $14 million for Sunday and Monday, respectively.
Despite now standing as the lowest reviewed (by critics) MCU film to date at 48 percent, the audience score is a much more positive 84 percent at the moment.
Getting into the minutia of these figures and potential review impact (or lack thereof), Friday’s increase from Thursday’s $17.5 million previews was 63 percent, 11 percent stronger than that of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (52 percent), while the Friday-to-Saturday bump was 19 percent for Quantumania versus Multiverse‘s 5.6 percent.
While not quite up to the more optimistic expectations of tracking and pre-sales observations a few weeks ago, the film’s ability to open relatively close to the high end of final forecasts despite the unusually soft critical reception is intriguing.
Does it indicate some possible audience immunity thanks to the Ant-Man brand’s strong casual and family audience appeal, plus intrigue surrounding the introduction of Jonathan Majors’ Kang? The latter remains a name still not familiar to many outside Marvel faithful, and these are debates that may be more informed by long-term staying power.
Domestically, premium formats account for 43 percent of opening weekend estimates, with IMAX alone generating $12.2 million over the four-day. That doubles the $6 million of Ant-Man and the Wasp back in July 2018.
Audience breakdowns are fairly typical for Marvel, skewing 61 percent male, 84 percent general audience, and 53 percent over the age of 25.
Internationally, Quantumania is drawing an estimated $121.3 million from 43 markets, giving the film a projected $225.3 million three-day in global terms.
Broken out, the Marvel tentpole earned $41 million from Europe, $58 million from Asia-Pacific, and $22 million from Latin America. China represented $19.2 million.
From Disney:
| Territories | GBO |
| China | $19.2M |
| UK | $10.9M |
| Mexico | $8.7M |
| Korea | $7.2M |
| Australia | $5.3M |
| Indonesia | $5.1M |
| Germany | $4.5M |
| France | $4.5M |
| Brazil | $3.9M |
| India | $3.9M |
| Italy | $3.2M |
| Japan | $3.1M |
Other key global highlights include an updated $421.7 million worldwide tally for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish after another $9.9 million weekend internationally; Knock at the Cabin reaches $47.3 million after another $1.554 million frame; M3GAN cracks $170.1 million globally with $738,000 this weekend; A Man Called Otto took $2.4 million for an international total of $38.4 million; and, Magic Mike’s Last Dance earned $4.6 million from 31 markets, bringing international’s tally to $19.6 million.
Domestic Studio Weekend Estimates
| Film | 3-Day Weekend Estimate | 4-Day Weekend Estimate | Locations | 3-Day Location Average | Domestic Total through Sunday | Domestic Total through Monday | Weekend | Studio |
| Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | $104,000,000 | $118,000,000 | 4,345 | $23,936 | $104,000,000 | $118,000,000 | 1 | Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures |
| Avatar: The Way of Water | $6,118,000 | $7,499,000 | 2,675 | $2,287 | $657,075,991 | $658,456,991 | 10 | Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures |
| Magic Mike’s Last Dance | $5,525,000 | 3,034 | $1,821 | $18,115,000 | 2 | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||
| Puss in Boots: The Last Wish | $5,260,000 | $6,970,000 | 3,012 | $1,746 | $166,076,000 | $167,786,000 | 9 | Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation |
| Knock at the Cabin | $3,900,000 | $4,490,000 | 2,601 | $1,499 | $30,372,000 | $30,962,000 | 3 | Universal Pictures |
| 80 for Brady | $3,600,000 | $4,250,000 | 3,119 | $1,154 | $32,248,000 | $32,898,000 | 3 | Paramount Pictures |
| Titanic (25th Anniversary Re-Release) | $2,290,000 | $2,720,000 | 2,132 | $1,074 | $12,413,000 | $12,843,000 | 2 | Paramount Pictures |
| Marlowe | $1,910,000 | $2,260,000 | 2,281 | $837 | $1,910,000 | $2,260,000 | 1 | Open Road Films / Briarcliff Entertainment |
| Missing | $1,725,000 | $2,025,000 | 1,516 | $1,336 | $29,668,000 | $29,968,000 | 5 | Sony & Screen Gems |
| A Man Called Otto | $1,600,000 | $1,900,000 | 1,725 | $928 | $60,622,000 | $60,922,000 | 8 | Sony & Columbia Pictures |
| M3GAN | $1,330,000 | $1,550,000 | 1,389 | $958 | $93,436,000 | $93,656,000 | 7 | Universal Pictures & Blumhouse |
| Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey | $679,291 | 451 | $1,506 | $1,518,549 | 1 | Fathom Events | ||
| Of An Age | $406,000 | $455,000 | 289 | $1,405 | $406,000 | $455,000 | 1 | Focus Features |
| Plane | $400,000 | $800,000 | 578 | $692 | $31,462,157 | $31,862,157 | 6 | Lionsgate |
| Living | $209,391 | 162 | $1,293 | $2,370,516 | 9 | Sony Pictures Classics | ||
| Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (Reissue) | $171,586 | 475 | $361 | $171,586 | 1 | Sony Pictures Classics | ||
| Everything Everywhere All at Once | $150,793 | $183,850 | 390 | $387 | $72,828,423 | $72,861,480 | 48 | A24 |
| The Whale | $134,499 | $163,680 | 363 | $371 | $16,590,403 | $16,619,584 | 11 | A24 |
| Close | $129,229 | $156,681 | 116 | $1,114 | $616,289 | $643,741 | 4 | A24 |
| Infinity Pool | $41,912 | 50 | $838 | $5,042,210 | 4 | NEON | ||
| Emily | $40,143 | $46,877 | 1 | $40,143 | $40,143 | $46,877 | 1 | Bleecker Street |
| Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | $34,000 | $42,000 | 75 | $453 | $453,704,994 | $453,712,994 | 15 | Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures |
| The Banshees of Inisherin | $33,000 | $43,000 | 265 | $125 | $10,370,551 | $10,380,551 | 18 | Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures |
| Return to Seoul | $30,785 | 2 | $15,393 | $40,336 | 1 | Sony Pictures Classics | ||
| EO | $23,100 | $27,550 | 37 | $624 | $997,086 | $1,001,536 | 14 | Sideshow / Janus Films |
| Aftersun | $13,371 | $16,159 | 15 | $891 | $1,563,040 | $1,565,828 | 18 | A24 |
| Full Time | $5,727 | 8 | $716 | $19,574 | 3 | Music Box Films |
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